363
FXUS61 KPBZ 042333
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
733 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGE TO THE IMPACTS JUST UPDATED TEXT IN THE KEY MESSAGES
#2 AS THE HEAT IS BEHIND US.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DAILY THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY, GENERALLY FAVORING
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS, WITH VARYING DEGREES OF SEVERE AND FLOOD
THREATS.
2) WEDNESDAY IS THE PICK DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING JUST ABOVE NORMAL AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY PLANNED FOR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH PLENTY
OF HEAT AND MOISTURE TO MAKE FOR ROBUST CONVECTION. IMPACTS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH WET MICROBURSTS PRODUCING STRONG COLD
POOLS THAT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP. DCAPE VALUES
ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY ABOVE 1000 J/KG WHILE FLOW IS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. NAM 3KM AND RREFS HAVE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR
DEPICTIONS ON TIMING AND AERIAL EXTENT OF STORM INITIATION OVER
EASTERN OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON THEN MOVING INTO WESTERN PA AND
NORTHERN WV THOUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DAMAGING WIND AND LIGHTNING ARE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. THE ONLY
GOOD NEWS IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT WILL BE NO HEAT HEADLINES
ARE FORESEEN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY. THIS ALLOWS
A STRONGER BELT OF MID LEVEL WINDS TO BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NOT TO MENTION, A PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR TWO INCHES. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH STORMS. EVEN THOUGH WE
HAVE BEEN DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS, URBAN AREAS IT DOESN'T MATTER AS
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN AN HOUR IS ALL IT TAKES. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WOULD BE
FAR SOUTHWEST PA AND NORTHERN WV. THAT COULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
MONDAY AND NOW EVEN INTO MOST OF TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
STORM IS HIGHEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AREAWIDE WITH DOWNPOURS
LIKELY. A GRADUAL SHIFT TO DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN OHIO THEN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
WEDNESDAY SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONT
LATER THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END AT MOST TERMINALS
AS THEY HAVE SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THIS EVENING FOR AWHILE LONGER
IMPACTING ZZV, MGW, AND LBE BEFORE COMING TO AN END THIS
EVENING. AFTER THE CONVECTION WANES WHICH SHOULD BE BY 04Z, A
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL PRODUCE FOG IN SOME PLACES AND IT
COULD REMAIN THROUGH 14Z WITH SOME IFR AND BELOW POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINALS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
WELL. SOME INSTANCES BEGINNING BY 16Z. HAVE USED SOME PROB30S TO
ADDRESS THE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY TOMORROW AS WELL WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED. ONCE
AGAIN, CONVECTION SHOULD WANE BY 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS FAVORED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG
AND STRATUS THROUGH THE MORNINGS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCMULLEN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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