323
FXUS61 KPBZ 051649
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1249 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES TEXT
KEY MESSAGES
1) THUNDERSTORMS, FAVORING AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS, REMAIN
LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE POSING A DECREASING DAMAGING WIND
THREAT BUT STEADY LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK.
2) ENSEMBLES TRENDING TOWARD A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEEK FEATURING
LIMITED "DRY" PERIODS BUT WITH LOW HAZARD PROBABILITIES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MOIST EVIDENT BY A PLUME OF PAWTS NEARING
TWO INCHES. STORM MOTION IS AROUND 20 KNOTS, SO TRAINING WILL
BE THE MAIN CULPRIT OF ANY FLOODING THAT HAPPENS. NOT SO EXCITED
ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE LACK OF DRY AIR THAT WE HAD THE
PAST TWO DAYS, WHICH HAS DROPPED THE DCAPE BY A FACTOR OR TWO.
FOR MONDAY:
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DECREASE THE AERIAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS DECREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN
THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY. WE WILL WAIT AND
SEE WHO GETS HIT TODAY THEN GO FROM THERE.
POTENTIAL DIFFERENTIATING FACTORS...POTENTIAL FOR EXTRA CLOUD
COVER TO LIMIT HEATING AND REDUCING BUOYANCY DEVELOPMENT
(MAINTAIN THE FLOOD THREAT BUT FURTHER ERODING WIND/HAIL
THREATS)...AND/OR SUBTLE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WORKING AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT OFFERS ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO DISPLACE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH/EAST. LIKE TODAY, HI-RES
MODELING FAVORS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MAXIMIZE THE
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS TO REACH THOSE SEVERE/FLOOD RISKS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SAGGING TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK, ACTING TO LIMIT AIRMASS CHANGES TO
ESCAPE THE DAILY POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS.
FAVORED AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE DICTATED BY THE SUBTLE AREAS
OF JET-INDUCED LIFT/SINK AROUND THE TROUGH AS WELL AS RESIDUAL
STORM OUTFLOWS BECAUSE SURFACE FRONTOGENESIS AND WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY NON- EXISTENT. THERE IS VARIANCE IN
HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES POSITIONED TO THE EAST,
MEANING VARIANCE ON WHEN THE "LULL" PERIOD MAY OCCUR. QUICKER
SOLUTIONS OFFER LOWER POPS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURE CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL; SLOWER
SOLUTIONS RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF "CHANCE" OR SO POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURE SITS NEAR AVERAGE.
OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS
FAVORED TO CROSS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THE BROKEN
RECORD OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
FOR THURSDAY HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR STORMS WITH
BETWEEN 5 TO 15 %. CIPS ANALOG IS A TOUCH HIGHER.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EXPECT A FEW INSTANCES OF MVFR/IFR AND BELOW THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING FOR SOME TERMINALS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR (SAVE FOR A BRIEF MVFR CU PERIOD AFTER HEATING INITIATES) IS
LIKELY AFTER 15Z BEFORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. WEAK SURFACE FORCING AND LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT
CREATES UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION, SO
EXPECT AFTERNOON AMENDMENTS TO ADJUST FOR THE LATEST
ANALYSIS/TRENDS. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND QUICKLY DROP VISIBILITIES TO 2 MILES OR
LESS.
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME CLEARING PORTENDS TO POTENTIAL
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE END/AFTER THE TAF PERIOD BUT
SIMILAR POTENTIAL FOR BOUNCY AND AREAL VARIABILITY IN
CONDITIONS.
FOR TONIGHT, DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH SITES DROPPING
DOWN TO FIELD MINS IN SOME CASES. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ANOTHER NIGHT OF IMPACTS TO VIS AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS RESTRICTIONS GIVING WAY TO MVFR/VFR CU
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE WEATHER SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007-013-014-
020>022-029-073>078.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ041.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>003.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER/MCMULLEN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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