809
FXUS61 KPBZ 190616
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
216 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AREAS
NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
2) A NEW DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THUNDERSTORMS AND
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING ON TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED
TO FLOOD WARNINGS. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR AND
CALM, CREEKS AND STREAMS, PARTICULARLY NEAR RED BANK CREEK
NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH, MAY REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL DAWN DUE TO
EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL (3-4 INCHES). RED BANK CREEK NEAR
ST.CHARLES MAY NEED TO PLACED ON A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IN THE
NEXT 3-6 HOURS IF IT CRESTS ABOVE 17FT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
RESPECT ALL ROAD CLOSURES UNTIL WATER LEVELS RECEDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT IN SIGNALING
THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TO THE
REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS OUTLINED THE
ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN IN A 15% SEVERE WEATHER RISK. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES APPEAR TO THE BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD AS
STRONG WIND SHEAR ACCOMPANIES THIS LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE CONVECTION SYSTEM (MCS) ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD RANGE BETWEEN 1.5-2 INCHES IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME AND RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST 3
HOURS AS DRY AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING COLD FRONT. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND ISOLATED FOG IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z DUE TO
REMNANT MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY TO PREVAIL WHILE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCASIONAL
APPEAR.
BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. BETWEEN 18Z TO 21Z, WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING, SCT
TO FEW LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS RETURN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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