674
FXUS61 KPBZ 230514
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
114 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG UPPER HIGH ANCHORS OVER THE FOUR CORNER STATES AND
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS FAST NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FAVORS
KEEPING DECENT AMOUNTS OF DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
POTENTIALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AT MID LEVELS IN PLAY. THERE IS A
TYPICAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY/DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION AND
TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TOPPING THE UPPER RIDGE AND HEADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AREA.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS (MCSS) MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST BEFORE TRACKING INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS,
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, TORNADOES, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES A 5-30%
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. CSU MACHINE LEARNING HAS 5-10%
CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND SHIFTS THINGS
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA BY TUESDAY. THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS
THREAT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE,
WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ANY MCSS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PROLONG VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR A
NUMBER OF DAYS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TODAY WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVERAGE. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR FKL AND MGW EARLY THIS
MORNING, BETWEEN 09Z TO 12Z. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DISSOLVE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CRAVEN
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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