908
FXUS61 KPBZ 281754
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
154 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN AND STRATUS HAS MUDDLED THE WARM SECTOR TODAY DIMINISHING
OUR DAMAGING WIND AND FLASH FLOOD RISK. THE D1 MARGINAL RISK HAS
BEEN PUSHED EASTWARD TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION, DAMAGING WIND
AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT TRIMMED TO OUR EASTERN RIDGES.
2) WEST TO EAST TAPERING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS PUTS THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF I-80.
RAIN SHOWERS AND STRATUS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE MUDDLED UP THE
WARM SECTOR QUITE A BIT FOR ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE HEART OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE STUCK IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AND THE HEATING NEEDED TO PRODUCE INSTABILITY HASN'T
DEVELOPED. WITH BETTER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT, UPDRAFTS HAVE
BEEN TRYING TO FIRE BUT HAVE BEEN STYMIED BY THE AMPLE DRY AIR
ABOVE 600MB. THIS DRY AIR STARTING NEAR 0C LIKELY PRECLUDES
STRONG UPDRAFTS AND EVEN LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. ADDITIONAL LIFT
PROVIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES COULD ALLOW FOR
A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION AND THE MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC HAS
BEEN PUSHED EASTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND WANING UPPER SUPPORT RESULTS IN
DWINDLING RAIN AND STORM ACTIVITY AFTER 21Z TONIGHT, WITH ALL
RISKS TAPERING OFF BY 00Z.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES A CLOSED UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT AROUND THIS LOW PLUS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
COULD FOSTER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS WEDNESDAY
(EAST OF I-77) AND THURSDAY (MAINLY ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN) IN
WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD BE A DRYING PERIOD WITH SLOWLY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO POSE RISKS DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY (LESS THAN 500 J/KG).
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE HEATING HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR TODAY, AND WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER,
THINK THAT COVERAGE WOULD BE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO TAKE
TSRA OUT OF MANY OF THE TERMINALS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
MENTION AT MGW AND LBE WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER AT THOSE SITES.
A GENERAL RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT, WITH SOME DRY ADVECTION AND MIXING/GUSTY NW SURFACE WIND.
STRATUS IS LIKELY TO THEN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE, AND DIMINISHING WIND. IFR IS FORECAST ACROSS
ALL SITES FOR A PERIOD, WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS KFKL,
KDUJ, KLBE, AND KMGW.
OUTLOOK...
A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY,
MAINLY EAST OF I-79, AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS INTO A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NE CONUS. A RETURN TO VFR IS THEN EXPECTED
(OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING VLY FG) THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER/AK
AVIATION...WM/34
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