908
FXUS61 KPBZ 291722
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
122 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FAVORED THIS WEEK BEFORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
AREA WHICH FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FOR OUR REGION. A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN AS
THE RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND THE HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN DUE TO THE TROUGH-INDUCED LIFT
AND MOISTURE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 90-95 PERCENT OF THE
ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW THAT THERE IS NO CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOOD
RISK, WHILE FEW MODELS DO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOW-END FLOOD
RISKS TO OCCUR. THIS CONCERN IS PENDING ON THE TRACK AND DEPTH
OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
COOL ADVECTION OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS COMBINED
TO CREATE MVFR-VFR STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUED TO RISE AND SCATTER AS WE
MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKC CONDITIONS BECOME WIDESPREAD
CLOSE TO 00Z THIS EVENING AS HEATING TAPERS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY CAN BE SUSTAINED NEAR 12 KTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 7-12 KTS AGAIN TOMORROW WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS FAVORED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. THE NEXT PERIOD OF ACTIVE
STARTS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE SLOW
PASSING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAIN
AVIATION...AK
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