564
FXUS61 KPBZ 030342 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1142 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT
2) AN ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT
COULD FEATURE VARYING HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISKS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL RATES
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A FLOOD RISK. FOG AND STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE MONDAY
MORNING, WITH DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS A DRYING
TREND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER TO
OFFER LOW PROBABILITY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AT
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
LONG-RANGE PATTERN FAVORS RENEWED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVEMENT
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUT WITH VARYING DEPTHS AND
TIMING. IF THE PATTERN FEATURES A WEAKER TROUGH FARTHER NORTH,
NEAR DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BETTER BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SEVERE/FLOOD HAZARDS DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE INFLUX AND LIMITED
AIRMASS CHANGING. A DEEPER TROUGH PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN LESS
FREQUENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT LIMITS THE DAYS OF POTENTIAL
IMPACTS. IT REMAINS BEST TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND TO BETTER UNDERSTAND POTENTIAL STORM
TIMING AND THEIR ASSOCIATED RISKS.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AREA CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN BEFORE 03Z TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
ON THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING, QUICKLY LIFTING IN THE
AFTERNOON. WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING LATE THIS WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM/FRAZIER
AVIATION...RACKLEY/MCMULLEN
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