486
FXUS61 KPBZ 030600
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
200 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER THROUGH TUESDAY. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN RETURNS BY MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EARLY MORNING SHOWERS, THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY
2) ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT, AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS, CONTINUES TO
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION, AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY
SUNRISE. STRATUS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
MORNING, THOUGH ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED BY A NW
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT BY
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH CLEARING SKIES THEN
EXPECTED.
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
LOWERING HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH NW FLOW. WARM
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S, ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A BROAD TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A CLOSED SE CONUS LOW IS PROGGED
TO PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD RETURN
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH
SHOULD THEN MAINTAIN DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED, THOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THOSE
SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A BAD OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE. A PERIOD OF
IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MIXING AFTER SUNRISE SHOULD
RESULT IN CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
ADVECTION IN NW FLOW SHOULD SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS AS IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A CU/STRATOCU LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD THEN MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND VFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING VALLEY FOG, VFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL, ALONG WITH DAILY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, RETURN FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A
PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM
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