152
FXUS61 KPBZ 031114
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
714 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER THROUGH TUESDAY. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN RETURNS BY MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EARLY MORNING SHOWERS, THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY
2) ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT, AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS, CONTINUES TO
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION, AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY
SUNRISE. STRATUS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
MORNING, THOUGH ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED BY A NW
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT BY
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH CLEARING SKIES THEN
EXPECTED.
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
LOWERING HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH NW FLOW. WARM
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S, ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A BROAD TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A CLOSED SE CONUS LOW IS PROGGED
TO PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD RETURN
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH
SHOULD THEN MAINTAIN DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED, THOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THOSE
SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER AFTER ERRODING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
BECAUSE OF THIS, PORTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM
IFR/MVFR TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS MOTLY REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL CALM AND VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH
CHANCES OF FOG FOR RIVER VALLEYS AND NORTH OF I-80, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IF FOG FOR DUJ AND FKL WHERE
TEMPOS WERE NOTED FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS FAVORED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM AND RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR
RESTRICTIONS. DAILY RESTRICTION AND THUNDER CHANCES LAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...MILCAREK
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