606
FXUS61 KPBZ 230135
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
935 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAS DECREASED THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP, MAINLY NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH, TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
2) OUTSIDE OF LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NEAR LAKE ERIE, DRY
WEATHER FAVORED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED
THIS EVENING WITH AN EXITING TROUGH AND DRIER CONDITIONS
BUILDING FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN HAZARD THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE
LIGHTNING.
MID- LEVEL TROUGHING AND COLD ADVECTION LINGERS OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY, WHICH MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF
SUNDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. ALTHOUGH DECREASING OVERALL
MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD KEEP A CAP ON COVERAGE, ONE OR TWO STRONG
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT, IF
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE CAN DEVELOP AS HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH OF I-80 AND ALONG THE RIDGES (A COOL-
SEASON TYPE OF SETUP) INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH ONGOING COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER A WARM LAKE ERIE.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE AND HEIGHT RISES ALOFT POINT TO A
PROLONGED (RELATIVELY SPEAKING, IN RELATION TO THE PREVIOUS
MONTH) DRY PERIOD TO START NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURE DOES
START BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ON MONDAY BEFORE RISING BACK NEAR
AVERAGE BY MID WEEK. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY FAVOR
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT DAY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA (ALREADY APPROACHING ZZV TO START
THE PERIOD). BEHIND THE FRONT, A SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS AND
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SETTLE IN AND KEEP MOST TERMINALS AT
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING ALONG THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF I-80 WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE AND
LINGERING SHOWERS FROM LAKE-ENHANCEMENT MAY RESULT IN
PERSISTENT STRATOCU WITH MVFR CEILINGS. STRATOCU MAY LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS TEETERING ON THE MVFR/VFR
THRESHOLD UNTIL IMPROVING TO VFR AND SCATTERING BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80;
MAINTAINED PROB30S AT FKL/DUJ TO REFLECT THAT POTENTIAL.
OUTLOOK...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER IN NORTHWEST PA INTO MONDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES AREAWIDE VFR DRY WEATHER BY TUESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/CL
AVIATION...CERMAK/MCMULLEN
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