376
FXUS61 KPBZ 060524
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
124 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS PROVIDES QUIET WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN, A
WARMING TREND PRECEDES THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH MAY ARRIVE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGIONS, LEADING TO NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY USHERING IN LOWER DEWPOINTS AND KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY AND PLEASANT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS FORECAST BOTH SUNDAY
AND LABOR DAY, WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS (UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80).
500MB HEIGHTS RISE AFTER MONDAY AS A NORTHEAST MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OPENS AND DEPARTS, ALLOWING A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS (MID/UPPER 80S) AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. THE
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOG AND STRATUS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON OVERNIGHT,
WHERE SATURDAY EVENING ROUNDS OF RAINFALL LEFT BEHIND LINGERING
NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE AND THE DRIER NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE NOT
YET ARRIVED. THEREFORE, KEPT PREVAILING DENSE FOG AT MGW
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, WITH IMPROVEMENT NOT LIKELY OCCURRING
UNTIL DAYBREAK WHEN A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND
NORTHERLY WINDS FINALLY ACT TO ERODE ANY LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA, SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY
FOG COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
AT FKL AND HLG, BUT FOR THE MOST PART VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER COOLER NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRONGLY FAVORS VFR THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. ANY
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE TIED TO BRIEF, PRE-DAWN RIVER
VALLEY FOG.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK
AVIATION...CERMAK
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