614
FXUS61 KPBZ 070518
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
118 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS PROVIDES QUIET WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT LIKELY TO
ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WHICH WILL LOCALLY
USHERING IN LOWER DEWPOINTS AND KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY AND
PLEASANT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE IS FORECAST BOTH SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS (UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80).
500MB HEIGHTS RISE AFTER MONDAY AS A NORTHEAST MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OPENS AND DEPARTS, ALLOWING A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD INTO A WARMING TREND FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS (MID/UPPER
80S). THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST REGIONS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WITH
CLEARING PROMPTING RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING,
EXPECTED SPOTTY RIVER VALLEY FOG. FKL MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR
VIS DUE TO FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
A PASSING COLD FRONT; RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK/WM/LUPO
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page