097
FXUS61 KPBZ 101207
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
807 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO KEY MESSAGES AND AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH; LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREAT.
2) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WILL WARRANT MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST THREE
HOURS THIS MORNING. REMNANT SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH
OF I-70 ALONG A SHALLOW MOISTURE BOUNDARY. RAINFALL RATES
REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND DO NOT CURRENTLY
POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT. HOWEVER, FLOOD AND FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN EARLIER AND MAY
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF.
WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL LARGELY DEPEND
ON THE EVOLUTION AND REMNANTS OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
(MCSS) CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. THE THREAT
FOR TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
REGION.
FOR OUR AREA, THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LIGHTNING FROM
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 2PM AND 7PM THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MACHINE-LEARNING MODELS SUGGEST THAT AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING ON FRIDAY, OUR LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AS A RESULT, THIS WILL ALLOW
DISTURBANCES FORMING UPSTREAM (TO OUR WEST) TO TRACK INTO OUR
AREA. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN COULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN AND/OR SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CIG RESTRICTIONS AT AREA TERMINALS REMAIN VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH FLUCTUATION FROM VFR TO AS LOW AS LIFR WITHIN
RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE FROM WEDNESDAY'S RAIN. FKL AND DUJ
HAVE SEEN THE MOST DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS SKIES CLEARED THERE
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ALLOWING FOR BETTER RADIATING. ELSEWHERE,
IT'S BEEN A MIX OF LOWER CIGS AND PERIODIC DIPS IN VIS. WITH
DIURNAL HEATING, RESTRICTIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE, THOUGH IT
COULD TAKE A COUPLE HOURS TO COMPLETELY RETURN VFR CONDITIONS AS
WE MIX OUT THE THICK LOW CLOUDS AND FOG; HREF PROBABILITY FOR
>3 KFT CIGS REACHES BACK TO >50% AROUND 16Z FOR MOST AND
SLIGHTLY LATER FOR FKL AND DUJ.
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND REINVIGORATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER 20Z PRIMARILY SOUTH
OF PIT. MAINTAINED THE PROB30S FOR PIT AND SURROUNDING AREA
TERMINALS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DISORGANIZED SPATIAL
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. INCLUDED PREVAILING PRECIP AT MGW
WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO FUMES OF
INSTABILITY. ANY STORM THAT PASSES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE POSSIBLE WITH
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS
WAY THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND BRING WITH IT LOWER DEW
POINTS, SO SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH SPATIAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THINK THAT MGW IS LIKELY FIRST IN LINE FOR BIGGEST
DEGRADATION ESPECIALLY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
VFR SHOULD RETURN FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RETURNS SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...MLB
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