624
FXUS61 KPBZ 261234
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
834 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 1 AS NOR'EASTER WILL PUSH A BIT FURTHER WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR
06Z TAF PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM A NOR'EASTER. AREAS CLOSEST TO THE
APPALACHIAN RIDGE WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY UP IN THE CLARION AND JEFFERSON COUNTY
PA AREAS. EASTERN OHIO WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REMAIN
DRY. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER, DAYTIMES HIGHS DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. WHILE
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PICK UP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE POLO, MUCH OF THE HEAVIER RAIN
THREAT IS LIKELY TO STAY WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS OF NOW, THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAINS
BETWEEN 30%-40% WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND INCREASES TO
30-50% FRIDAY. PROBABILITY OF 24 HOUR QPF >=0.10" WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IS 10-20%, INCREASING TO 20-30% THURSDAY AND 40-50%
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A NOR'EASTER OFF THE COAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS NEW
JERSEY OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS, MAINTAINING NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY. DIURNAL
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE GUSTS OF 15-25KTS, PRIMARILY
AT TERMINALS EAST OF PIT WHERE STRONGER VERTICAL WIND PROFILES
ARE EXPECTED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW.
BECAUSE OF STRONGER FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE DRIFTING WEST ON
THE PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST STORM, FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER
LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEND TO SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS (DUJ AND LBE).
TOMORROW MORNING, ZZV AND MGW ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO STAY MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
RIVER-VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK...
TOMORROW, LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THE AFTERNOON FOR
THE EASTERN AIRPORTS, HOWEVER, IT IS MORE LIKELY TO START DURING
THE EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR MVFR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR
TERMINALS FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE NOR'EASTER MOVES ONSHORE.
THERE IS ABOUT A 50%-80% OF AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS FOR ALL BUT
ZZV INTO MONDAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 35%-50% CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS
MONDAY MORNING FOR FKL, DUJ, AND LBE. RESTRICTIONS WILL BRIEFLY
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS DURING THE MORNING, OTHERWISE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES IN MID TO LATE
WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CRAVEN
AVIATION...CRAVEN/LUPO
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