131
FXUS61 KPBZ 262314
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
714 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LITTLE IMPACTS FROM THE NOR'EASTER THROUGH MONDAY
2) CONTINUED DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER BEFORE A LATE WEEK FRONT
RETURNS PRECIPITATION, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COME
BACK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR'EASTER MOVES WESTWARD. AS OF NOW, THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE /<25%/ OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAINLY EAST
OF I-79. CAN NOT RULE OUT SPRINKLES AS FAR WEST AS I-77 SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WON'T BE A WASHOUT IN ANY AREA, BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO AN
OVERCAST SKY, TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY PULL BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SAVE FOR AREAS WEST OF I-77 WHO WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COME TUESDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR'EASTER WILL
BE OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS ALLOWS A TRANSITORY H5 RIDGE AXIS TO
MOVE IN RETURNING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD 70S. LATEST PROBS OF
MAXT 80F OR GREATER CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR NORTHERN WV,
SOUTHEASTERN OH, AND SOUTHWESTERN PA AS THEY NOW RESIDE BETWEEN
40-60%. THIS BY NO MEANS IS NEAR RECORD TERRITORY AS BENCHMARKS
FOR 1 OCTOBER ARE STILL NEAR 90F AT MOST CLIMATE SITES. HEAT
RISK AT THIS JUNCTURE REMAINS IN THE MINOR CATEGORY.
WE RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH IS ALONG LAKE ERIE
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK PLACING US IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE TREND CONTINUES FOR DRY WEATHER, HOWEVER A WEAK
IMPULSE COULD TRAVERSE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS. FOR NOW, PROBS
BETWEEN 20-40% HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN, FORECAST HIGHS PULL BACK A LITTLE
ON DAY 6 AND 7 TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 60
ARE PROJECTED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
FOR LOCATIONS WHO DO NOT RECEIVE RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
THEN NONE IS EXPECTED THE BALANCE OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE HERE DESPITE THE INTRUSION OF UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS COMING WEST FROM THE NOR'EASTER OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COASTLINE. A NORTHWARD MOTION IS CONTINUING AT THIS TIME BUT, A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. THIS CONTINUES
OUR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THIS STRONG
FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAKENING DIURNAL WIND FIELD OVERNIGHT, A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF NEAR LLWS CONCERNS COULD SET IN ACROSS
EASTERN PORTS (DUJ AND LBE).
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
RESTRICTIONS AT MGW EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ENCROACHING UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MAKE A PURE PERSISTENCE FORECAST IMPOSSIBLE, AS
CONDITIONS HAVE CHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT. CONTINUED TEMPO FOR FOG
CONDITIONS WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR REMOVAL.
LIGHT RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN PORTS
TOMORROW EVENING AND NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, RAINFALL LOOKS TO
START AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF WINDOW AND COULD BE
INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAF FOR DUJ/LBE. THE CHANCE FOR MVFR WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR TERMINALS FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE
NOR'EASTER MOVES TOWARDS THE JERSEY SHORE SUNDAY. THERE IS >50%
OF AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS REGION- WIDE BY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THERE IS ABOUT A 35%-50% CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS MONDAY MORNING
FOR FKL, DUJ, AND LBE. RESTRICTIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS DURING THE MORNING, OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES IN MID TO LATE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCMULLEN
AVIATION...LUPO/AK
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