933
FXUS61 KPBZ 270539
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
139 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LITTLE IMPACTS FROM THE NOR'EASTER THROUGH MONDAY
2) CONTINUED DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER BEFORE A LATE WEEK FRONT
RETURNS PRECIPITATION, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COME
BACK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
00Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATES A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SURMOUNTED
BY A 200MB-DEEP DRY LAYER FROM H8-H6. ATOP THIS DRY LAYER IS A
MOIST-ADIABATIC SATURATED LAYER NEAR H5, SUGGESTING CONSIDERABLE
WORK STILL TO DO FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS.
PRIOR MESSAGE OF VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN WEST OF I-79 AXIS
SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE, IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN HOW MUCH RAIN WILL ULTIMATELY REACH THE GROUND ANYWHERE IN
THE FORECAST REGION WEST OF THE RIDGES (AS SOME HI-RES ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUGGEST). IF IT DOES END UP RAINING, IT LIKELY WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR'EASTER MOVES WESTWARD. AS OF NOW, THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE /<25%/ OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAINLY EAST
OF I-79. CAN NOT RULE OUT SPRINKLES AS FAR WEST AS I-77 SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WON'T BE A WASHOUT IN ANY AREA, BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO AN
OVERCAST SKY, TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY PULL BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SAVE FOR AREAS WEST OF I-77 WHO WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COME TUESDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR'EASTER WILL
BE OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS ALLOWS A TRANSITORY H5 RIDGE AXIS TO
MOVE IN RETURNING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD 70S. LATEST PROBS OF
MAXT 80F OR GREATER CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR NORTHERN WV,
SOUTHEASTERN OH, AND SOUTHWESTERN PA AS THEY NOW RESIDE BETWEEN
40-60%. THIS BY NO MEANS IS NEAR RECORD TERRITORY AS BENCHMARKS
FOR 1 OCTOBER ARE STILL NEAR 90F AT MOST CLIMATE SITES. HEAT
RISK AT THIS JUNCTURE REMAINS IN THE MINOR CATEGORY.
WE RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH IS ALONG LAKE ERIE
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK PLACING US IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE TREND CONTINUES FOR DRY WEATHER, HOWEVER A WEAK
IMPULSE COULD TRAVERSE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS. FOR NOW, PROBS
BETWEEN 20-40% HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN, FORECAST HIGHS PULL BACK A LITTLE
ON DAY 6 AND 7 TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 60
ARE PROJECTED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
FOR LOCATIONS WHO DO NOT RECEIVE RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
THEN NONE IS EXPECTED THE BALANCE OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
REMOVED FOG FOR MGW AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENTLY 7F TEMP-TD SPREAD SO PROBABILITY
OF FOG TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
LIGHT RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN PORTS THIS
EVENING ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF COASTAL STORM WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BACKING IN FROM EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. GRADUAL
MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN WILL RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY
DROPPING TO MVFR IN THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT
FKL AND DUJ AND ARE LIKELY TOWARD 12Z AT KPIT.
PROBABILITY OF IFR CEILING IS 30% AT KDUJ BY 00Z AN INCREASES
TO 50% BY 06Z. KPIT IFR CEILING PROBABILITY RISES TO 20% BY 06Z
AND 50% BY 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
THERE IS 40%-60% CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL
AIRPORTS EXCEPT ZZV, WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT FKL, DUJ, AND
LBE. RESTRICTIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS
DURING THE MORNING FROM RADIATION FOG, OTHERWISE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES IN MID TO LATE
WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRAMAR/MCMULLEN
AVIATION...CRAVEN
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