862
FXUS61 KPBZ 280014
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
814 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES EAST OF PITTSBURGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WERE
RAISED SLIGHTLY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY THURSDAY, WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF HIGHS REACHING 80. NO
OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT RAIN TO THE EAST OF PITTSBURGH ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE NOR'EASTER
2) A MOSTLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES, BEFORE A LATE WEEK FRONT RETURNS
PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WRAPAROUND RAIN FROM THE NOR'EASTER SPINNING OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COASTLINE IS SLIDING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGES AT THIS
TIME. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY A LITTLE FURTHER WEST TO
CATCH THIS. EARLY LOOKS AT THE 00Z PITTSBURGH RAOB SHOW LESS
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, THIS IS SHOWING
UP IN DUJ OBS, WHERE REPORTS ARE ALREADY UP TO 0.12 INCHES OF
RAIN. LIGHT RAIN TRAILS OFF AFTER THIS BAND PASSES AND POPS DROP
APPRECIABLY OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD BOUNDARY LAYER GUSTS BETWEEN
20-30 MPH ARE BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE NOR'EASTER STARTS TO
WADDLE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD, BUT A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH AS SURFACE
WIND BACKS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS NORTHWEST. CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE COASTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR'EASTER PULLS
OFFSHORE, 500MB RIDGING WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RESULT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH THAT LATTER DAY REPRESENTING THE PEAK OF A
WARMING TREND AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AMPS UP BEHIND A CAROLINA
SURFACE HIGH. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 80F OR GREATER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT DAY HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN 50 AND 80 PERCENT
FOR MOST NON-RIDGE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80. THAT SAID, DEWPOINTS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 60S WILL KEEP HEAT RISK CONCERNS
RELATIVELY MUTED. CURRENTLY, PROBABILITIES FOR MODERATE OR
HIGHER HEAT RISK LEVELS ARE 10 PERCENT OR LESS.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN OPINION IN THE LONGER-RANGE MODELS
REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND POTENTIALLY THE GREAT LAKES
LATER IN THE WEEK. STILL, AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
BECOMES MORE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THE MOISTENING WARM
SECTOR, WITH RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS MUTED BY MEAGER INSTABILITY, AND
PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN ARE LOW (40 PERCENT LESS OR
CHANCE FOR >0.50 INCH IN ANY 24-HOUR PERIOD). GIVEN THE
INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TUMBLE
BACK TO, OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW, CLIMATOLOGY BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A GENERAL DETERIORATION IN CIG HEIGHT IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
AS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL LOW
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SLOWS THE
TIMING OF THE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS JUST SLIGHTLY, SO THE BIGGEST
ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST REFLECTS THOSE CHANGES. AT THIS TIME,
ONLY ZZV LOOKS TO GENERALLY STAY AWAY FROM A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF RESTRICTIONS, THOUGH WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER COULD HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK PER THE HREF. FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT THE SITES THAT RECEIVE LIGHT PRECIPITATION (KDUJ
AND KLBE WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE; KMGW AND KAGC WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE).
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY THOUGH
THERE REMAINS A 30%-50% PROBABILITY OF IFR CEILINGS STICKING
AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY AT SITES NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
FURTHER WEST IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO RETURN TO VFR.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF MORNING FOG
POTENTIAL UNTIL THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA MID TO
LATE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL/AK
AVIATION...34
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