512
FXUS61 KPBZ 280516
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
116 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION WITH 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT RAIN TO THE EAST OF PITTSBURGH ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE NOR'EASTER
2) A MOSTLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES, BEFORE A LATE WEEK FRONT RETURNS
PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WRAPAROUND RAIN FROM THE NOR'EASTER SPINNING OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COASTLINE IS SLIDING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGES AT THIS
TIME. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY A LITTLE FURTHER WEST TO
CATCH THIS. EARLY LOOKS AT THE 00Z PITTSBURGH RAOB SHOW LESS
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, THIS IS SHOWING
UP IN DUJ OBS, WHERE REPORTS ARE ALREADY UP TO 0.12 INCHES OF
RAIN. LIGHT RAIN TRAILS OFF AFTER THIS BAND PASSES AND POPS DROP
APPRECIABLY OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD BOUNDARY LAYER GUSTS BETWEEN
20-30 MPH ARE BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE NOR'EASTER STARTS TO
WADDLE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD, BUT A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH AS SURFACE
WIND BACKS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS NORTHWEST. CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE COASTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR'EASTER PULLS
OFFSHORE, 500MB RIDGING WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RESULT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH THAT LATTER DAY REPRESENTING THE PEAK OF A
WARMING TREND AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AMPS UP BEHIND A CAROLINA
SURFACE HIGH. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 80F OR GREATER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT DAY HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN 50 AND 80 PERCENT
FOR MOST NON-RIDGE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80. THAT SAID, DEWPOINTS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 60S WILL KEEP HEAT RISK CONCERNS
RELATIVELY MUTED. CURRENTLY, PROBABILITIES FOR MODERATE OR
HIGHER HEAT RISK LEVELS ARE 10 PERCENT OR LESS.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN OPINION IN THE LONGER-RANGE MODELS
REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND POTENTIALLY THE GREAT LAKES
LATER IN THE WEEK. STILL, AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
BECOMES MORE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THE MOISTENING WARM
SECTOR, WITH RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS MUTED BY MEAGER INSTABILITY, AND
PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN ARE LOW (40 PERCENT LESS OR
CHANCE FOR >0.50 INCH IN ANY 24-HOUR PERIOD). GIVEN THE
INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TUMBLE
BACK TO, OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW, CLIMATOLOGY BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IFR CEILINGS IN PLACE ALREADY AT DUJ AND LIKELY TO STAY THAT WAY
UNTIL MIDDAY. GIVEN EARLIER RAIN CERTAINLY COULD BE IFR
VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOURS CENTERED AROUND 12Z.
ELSEWHERE VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. BECAUSE OF CLEAR SKIES AROUND ZZV, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG TOWARD 12Z. DID NOT INCLUDE IT
BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY WITH GRADUAL RISE
TOWARD UPPER END OF MVFR. MAY BE A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS IN THE
EVENING BEFORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW FOR RADIATION FOG
FORMATION TOWARD 06Z. DO EXPECT IFR TO LIFR IN FOG FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TUESDAY MORNING.
AFTER BURNING OFF TUESDAY MID MORNING, EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
REPEAT OF RADIATION FOG LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS GENERALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS RETURNING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL/AK
AVIATION...CRAVEN
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