749
FXUS61 KPBZ 290448
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1248 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MOSTLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES, BEFORE A LATE WEEK FRONT RETURNS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE/CLOUDS FROM THE LINGERING NOR'EASTER WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY IN NORTHERLY FLOW. A
FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR AND
NORTH OF PITTSBURGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE-PRONE
REGIONS, BUT LIMITED LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY, SAVE FOR AREAS NEAR ZZV
THAT ARE RECEIVING MORE SUNSHINE AND WILL BE A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL.
THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT TOWARDS THE GULF
OF MAINE, FINALLY DEVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TOMORROW NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK TONIGHT AS
THIS PROCESS BEGINS. ANY LOCATIONS THAT MANAGES TO CLEAR MAY
QUICKLY FOG IN GIVEN THE NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND A
VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE CLOUD DECREASE CONTINUES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING CROSSES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO ARRIVES AND REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO THURSDAY. THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE
NORMAL WHILE MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
80F OR GREATER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY REMAIN IN THE 55 TO
80 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST NON-RIDGE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S THAT DAY, HOWEVER, POINT TO LESS HEAT
STRESS - PROBABILITIES FOR MODERATE OR HIGHER HEATRISK VALUES
REMAIN UNDER 20 PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART.
500MB FLOW FLATTENS AFTER THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES
EASTERN CANADA. STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES REMAIN WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY LIES TO OUR NORTH.
THAT SAID, AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THE MOISTENING WARM SECTOR WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONT, WITH RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS MUTED BY MEAGER
INSTABILITY, AND PROBABILITIES FOR PROBLEMATIC RAINFALL TOTALS
REMAIN QUITE LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW CONFIDENCE SITUATION OVERNIGHT AS FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED DUE TO WIDESPREAD MAINLY VFR CEILINGS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE RIDGES WHERE MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN
PLACE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
THAT WOULD ALLOW RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS TREND ALTHOUGH WILL TRY AND AVOID
LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNTIL BREAKS INDEED DEVELOP. MVFR
TO PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
IN THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME.
WOULD EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND THEN VFR QUICKLY IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MVFR MAY
CONTINUE AT KDUJ UNTIL THIS EVENING.
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN INCREASED RADIATION
AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE AGAIN NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS RETURNING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...CRAVEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page