617
FXUS61 KPBZ 290552
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
152 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF
PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MOSTLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES, BEFORE A LATE WEEK FRONT RETURNS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RIDGING BUILDING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY DRY
THINGS OUT AND ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND AS WE ENTER OCTOBER.
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 80F BY THURSDAY ARE IN THE 60-90%
RANGE FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND THE RIDGES.
DEPENDING ON SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER FRIDAY THERE IS
STILL A SHOT AT 80F THOUGH THE PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER.
THE TREND HAS CONTINUED TO BE DRIER FOR THURSDAY AND IT NOW
APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION LIKELY WAITS UNTIL FRIDAY AND ON INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE MORE SCENARIOS NOW THAT KEEP A THURSDAY
SHORT WAVE WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO AND THE RIDGE KEEPS HOLD ON
AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS SHOWN TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND BRING A FRONT WITH SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 0.25" OF RAIN INCREASE TO 40-60%
SATURDAY AND 45-70% ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN WEST
VIRGINIA AND LOWEST PROBABILITIES ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THE
WET WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLING WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW CONFIDENCE SITUATION OVERNIGHT AS FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED DUE TO WIDESPREAD MAINLY VFR CEILINGS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE RIDGES WHERE MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN
PLACE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
THAT WOULD ALLOW RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS TREND ALTHOUGH WILL TRY AND AVOID
LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNTIL BREAKS INDEED DEVELOP. MVFR
TO PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
IN THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME.
WOULD EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND THEN VFR QUICKLY IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MVFR MAY
CONTINUE AT KDUJ UNTIL THIS EVENING.
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN INCREASED RADIATION
AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE AGAIN NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS RETURNING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CRAVEN
AVIATION...CRAVEN
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