470
FXUS61 KPBZ 030552
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
152 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AND THE FROST NEXT WEEK SEEM TO
BE MORE CERTAIN. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER AND MAINLY DRY FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FROST IS A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS,
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL VALUES
FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE REINFORCED BY
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS
WAVE COULD PULL MOISTURE, FROM THE BOUNDARY THAT BECOMES DIFFUSE
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION AFTER CROSSING TODAY, NORTHWARD,
LEADING TO SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IS FAIRLY LOW (PROB > 0.05 INCHES AROUND 30%
IN THE WV RIDGES). AT THIS POINT, THE RIDGES ARE MAINLY AN
SLIGHT ASSIST IN LIFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY,
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT FINALLY ON SUNDAY, THE CORE OF THE
COLDER MOVING IN BEHIND THAT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST
POTENTIAL ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS PROBABILITY
WILL MAINLY BE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH. THE NBM STILL,
GIVES A GOOD >50% PROB FOR THE FROST. OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST
PERSISTS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION BUT MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY STAYS IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE MASON
DIXON LINE. THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT RAIN, LOW CIG AND FOG
POTENTIAL THROUGH DAWN. OTHERWISE, MAINLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
CLOUDS. GIVEN THE COOL AND CALM CONDITIONS, SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAWN, BUT MAINLY THE RIVER VALLEYS.
OUTLOOK...
THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH MAY BRIEFLY LIFT NORTH SUNDAY
MORNING BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR CEILING RESTRICTIONS AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS PROGGED OUTSIDE OF ANY
MORNING FOG.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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