522
FXUS61 KPBZ 161754
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
154 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME STRONG STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT. A FREEZE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE HIGH PROBABILITY FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP AT/BELOW 32F. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WIND TODAY.
2) COLDER WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
FROST POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
3) DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA (EAST OF WETZEL COUNTY), BUILDING
INSTABILITY AND THE SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE FRONT CROSSES. THERE
IS SOME VEERING IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WITH SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF ROTATION SHOULD PARAMETERS BRIEFLY ALIGN, THOUGH THE
MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT
TO THE EAST BY 4-5 PM, ENDING THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: FAYETTE (PA), MARION (WV), MONONGALIA
(WV), PRESTON (WV), AND TUCKER (WV).
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION, WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING. HOWEVER, THERE IS ONLY A 20%
CHANCE THAT GUSTS WILL EXCEED 30 MPH TONIGHT IN AREAS OF EASTERN
OHIO. FOR AREAS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN, GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THERE IS ABOUT A 50%-60% CHANCE FOR
GUSTS TO EXCEED 30 MPH TONIGHT.
THE DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF BY THE TIME THE COLDEST AIR
ARRIVES SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES DUE TO
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S, OTHERWISE, NO SNOW IS
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE EAST COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS/CLOSES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION, WITH
LIGHT WIND AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
REGION EFFECTIVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BREAK
AWAY FROM THE TROUGH AND PERSIST OFF OF THE SE COAST. OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME
RELATIVELY STATIONARY BY TUESDAY, FOLLOWING A TROPICAL STORM
SIMON. AREAS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BE UNDER A RIDGE, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE
BACK TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER THE 18Z
TAF ISSUANCE, RESULTING IN ENDING THE RISKS FOR GUSTS 30-45KTS
AND HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ITS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
BROAD ASCENT WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE SSW WILL FAVOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z WITH CIGS OCCASIONALLY VARYING BETWEEN LOW MVFR TO LOW VFR
AND LIMITED VISIBILITY IMPACTS. A REINFORCING FRONT CAUSING A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AFT 00Z MAY RESULT IN A SECOND WAVE OF
RAIN THAT BETTER LOWERS VISIBILITY AND OFFERS LOW PROBABILITY
IFR CIG CHANCES.
THOUGH DRYING AND SUBTLE CIG RISES BEGIN AFTER THIS SECOND
FRONTAL PASSAGE, COLD ADVECTION COUPLED WITH WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY RESULT IN NARROW BANDS OF LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS THAT
MAINTAIN (OR FURTHER LOWER) THE FAIRLY PREDOMINANT MVFR STRATUS
ON GOING.
OUTLOOK...
LIFTING/BREAKING OF RESIDUAL MVFR TO VFR STRATOCU EXPECTED
BY 14Z SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING BUILD OVER THE
REGION, WITH CLEAR SKIES LIKELY BY 00Z.
THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR DRY
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK, SAVE FOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...WM/LUPO
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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