094
FXUS61 KPBZ 162015
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
415 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED FOR TODAY. A FREEZE WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE HIGH PROBABILITY FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO/BELOW 32F.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND GUSTY WIND THROUGH TONIGHT
2) COLDER WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
FROST POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
3) DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS AFTERNOON'S PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE,
EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTY WIND WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MIXING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE IN THE LOWLANDS AND POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH IN THE
RIDGES. THE PROBABILITY FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA >46 MPH REMAINS
LOW.
A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
THOUGH SOME SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TAPERING
OFF BY THE TIME THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY MORNING. WITH
THAT SAID, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN
NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S, BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY
FLAKES TO STICK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE EAST COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS/CLOSES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION, WITH
LIGHT WIND AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
REGION EFFECTIVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BREAK
AWAY FROM THE TROUGH AND PERSIST OFF OF THE SE COAST. OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME
RELATIVELY STATIONARY BY TUESDAY, FOLLOWING A TROPICAL STORM
SIMON. AREAS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BE UNDER A RIDGE, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE
BACK TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER THE 18Z
TAF ISSUANCE, RESULTING IN ENDING THE RISKS FOR GUSTS 30-45KTS
AND HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ITS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
BROAD ASCENT WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE SSW WILL FAVOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z WITH CIGS OCCASIONALLY VARYING BETWEEN LOW MVFR TO LOW VFR
AND LIMITED VISIBILITY IMPACTS. A REINFORCING FRONT CAUSING A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AFT 00Z MAY RESULT IN A SECOND WAVE OF
RAIN THAT BETTER LOWERS VISIBILITY AND OFFERS LOW PROBABILITY
IFR CIG CHANCES.
THOUGH DRYING AND SUBTLE CIG RISES BEGIN AFTER THIS SECOND
FRONTAL PASSAGE, COLD ADVECTION COUPLED WITH WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY RESULT IN NARROW BANDS OF LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS THAT
MAINTAIN (OR FURTHER LOWER) THE FAIRLY PREDOMINANT MVFR STRATUS
ON GOING.
OUTLOOK...
LIFTING/BREAKING OF RESIDUAL MVFR TO VFR STRATOCU EXPECTED
BY 14Z SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING BUILD OVER THE
REGION, WITH CLEAR SKIES LIKELY BY 00Z.
THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR DRY
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK, SAVE FOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...WM/MLB/LUPO
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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