316
FXUS61 KPBZ 171734
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
134 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLEARING TODAY WITH DIMINISHING WIND. FREEZE CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.
2) DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT, WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD RESULT IN BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. NUDGED GUIDANCE TOWARD THE COLDER SOLUTIONS WITH THESE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES, THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AIR AND WATER ( IN THE LOW
60S).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN OFF OF THE
MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK,
WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS. DURING THIS WEEK, A
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CONUS TO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
STATIONARY AS IT BUILDS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE. READINGS
BY MID TO LATE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LINGERING FEW TO SCATTERED 2-5KFT STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE REGION CLOUD FREE BY 00Z (AT MINIMUM, IF NOT
SOONER).
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG (DEVELOP UNDER CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT
WIND, AND LARGE AIR/WATER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES) IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z SUNDAY BUT PROBABILITIES OF TERMINAL IMPACT
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR MENTION.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...WM/LUPO
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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