065
FXUS61 KPBZ 181630
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1230 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING, THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED FOR MOST OF NORTHWESTERN PA AND AREAS ALONG THE
RIDGE-LINE. TONIGHT, MOST OF THE AREA HAS A CHANCE FOR FROST
WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES. A FROST
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS STILL IN THE GROWING SEASON
(EASTERN OHIO, MOST OF NORTHERN WV, AND SOUTHWESTERN PA). DUE
TO THESE COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING.
MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STATIONARY CLOSED LOW
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS, A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THAT TIME. THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA, WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LOW
TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA ON THE NE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE,
ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK
WITH THE LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FAVORED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD (WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW IMPACT
RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG MONDAY MORNING).
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR IS HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ020-021-029-
031-073-075.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-509-510.
DISCUSSION...WM/LUPO
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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