286
FXUS61 KPBZ 182320
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
720 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT NO CHANGES TO
THE FROST ADVISORY ARE ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING, THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED FOR MOST OF NORTHWESTERN PA AND AREAS ALONG THE
RIDGE-LINE. TONIGHT, MOST OF THE AREA HAS A CHANCE FOR FROST
WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES. A FROST
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS STILL IN THE GROWING SEASON
(EASTERN OHIO, MOST OF NORTHERN WV, AND SOUTHWESTERN PA). DUE
TO THESE COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING.
MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STATIONARY CLOSED LOW
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS, A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THAT TIME. THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA, WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LOW
TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA ON THE NE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE,
ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK
WITH THE LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A
LIGHT EASTERLY WIND EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF, LOW-IMPACT RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG
OVERNIGHT. TEMPOS WERE INCLUDED FOR HLG AND AGC WHERE SUCH
IMPACTS ARE A BIT MORE LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR IS HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ020-021-029-
031-073-075.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-509-510.
DISCUSSION...WM/LUPO
AVIATION...CL
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