945
FXUS61 KPBZ 200138
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
938 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A SMALL FROST ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PA AND
NORTHERN WV OVERNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEARLY PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FEATURING
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE WITH REPEATED FROST CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BOTH NEAR AND LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODELS REMAIN
STAUNCH IN A FAIRLY PERSISTENT FORECAST FEATURING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND VARYING UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE RESULT FAVORS
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE, DRY WEATHER, LIGHT WIND, AND A
PREPONDERANCE OF SUNSHINE THAT MAY AID TO LARGER DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. SUCH SWINGS COULD CREATE OCCASIONAL PATCHY
FROST (GENERALLY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED), SO FOLKS
WHO HAVE OR BUYING FALL PLANTS LIKE MUMS SHOULD REMAIN COGNIZANT
OF. GIVEN A NEARLY PERFECT SETUP FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, A FROST ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WV FROM 2 AM TO 9
AM TUESDAY MORNING.
THE ONLY SUBTLE FLOW CHANGE IS A MOSTLY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
DROPS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
POTENTIALLY OFFERING A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND LESS THAN 20%
PROBABILITIES FOR SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN IN AREAS CLOSE
TO LAKE ERIE.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL WORK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH-
CONFIDENCE VFR IS FORECAST, SAVE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RIVER
VALLEY FOG THAT IS MOST LIKELY TO CREATE BRIEF IFR/LIFR IMPACTS
AT HLG AND FKL. TH FOG MAY BE LESS DENSE GIVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIR TEMPERATURES. A LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WIND MAY DEVELOP LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR IS HIGHLY LIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ029-031-
073-075.
OH...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ004-012-
021-509-510.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER/AK
AVIATION...CL
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