821
FXUS61 KPBZ 201127
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. CONDITIONS
REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE WITH LIGHT FROST CHANCES PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BOTH NEAR AND LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODELS REMAIN
STAUNCH IN A FAIRLY PERSISTENT FORECAST FEATURING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND VARYING UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE RESULT FAVORS
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE, DRY WEATHER, LIGHT WIND, AND A
PREPONDERANCE OF SUNSHINE. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN LARGE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES, WITH CHANCES FOR PATCHY MORNING
FROST (GENERALLY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED). THOSE WITH
FALL PLANTS LIKE MUMS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THIS THREAT.
A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WV.
THE ONLY SUBTLE FLOW CHANGE IS A MOSTLY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
DROPS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
POTENTIALLY OFFERING A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND LESS THAN 20%
PROBABILITIES FOR SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN IN AREAS CLOSE
TO LAKE ERIE.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK SAVE FOR
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AND LOCAL IMPACTS. BRIEF PRE-DAWN
IFR/LIFR IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT LBE, AGC, HLG,
AND FKL. LIGHT NE WIND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. CALM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR IS HIGHLY LIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ029-031-073-
075.
OH...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ004-012-021-
509-510.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY/FRAZIER/AK
AVIATION...RACKLEY/LUPO
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