250
FXUS65 KRIW 181055
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
355 AM MST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN WYOMING MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
MAY BRING BRIEF SNOW TO LOWER ELEVATIONS.
- WINDY TODAY, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 40 MPH.
- COLD AND BREEZY TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 AM MST MON NOV 18 2024
A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, RESULTING IN WIND AND SNOW.
STARTING WITH WIND, IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
BOTH HIGHER AND LOWER ELEVATIONS. GUSTY WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS STARTING LATE MORNING. GUSTS 20 TO 35 MPH
WILL BE COMMON. FOR SWEETWATER COUNTY, NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST
FREMONT COUNTY, AND THROUGH NATRONA COUNTY, GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATE INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS DECREASE A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT, BUT IT REMAINS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SNOW IS OTHER WEATHER ELEMENT OF TODAY. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST SHIFTS. AS A RESULT, WILL KEEP WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS AS ARE, WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE TETONS, AND A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YELLOWSTONE/SALT RIVER AND WYOMING
RANGES. SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE TETONS INTO THE PLATEAUS OF
SOUTHWEST YELLOWSTONE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR 10 TO 15 INCHES, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
OVER THESE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OCCURS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON TODAY.
THE BIGHORN TOTALS HAVE COME UP A BIT. ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANGE,
TOTALS ARE ON THE EDGE OF ADVISORY AMOUNTS (5 TO 8 INCHES). HOWEVER,
GIVEN WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE PASSES, AS WELL AS MODELS INDICATING
AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RANGE, HAVE ADDED AN
ADVISORY TO THE WESTERN BIGHORN MOUNTAINS FOR TODAY. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW LOOKS TO FALL BETWEEN MID-AFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING, BEFORE
LESSENING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH TODAY MAY
BRING SOME BRIEF SNOW. HOWEVER, TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNDER
AN INCH MOST EVERYWHERE, WITH A MAJORITY BETWEEN 0 AND 0.5 INCHES OF
SNOW. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS OVER NATRONA
COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS COULD
BRING AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES.
SNOW MAINLY COMES TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT, BUT LINGERS OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SNOW WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE, ESPECIALLY STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. UP TO 4 MORE INCHES OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TETONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
LESS ELSEWHERE.
POST COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE NOTABLY COOLER, ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE. CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FOR THE NIGHT
WILL RESULT IN COLD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AND VALUES GENERALLY RANGING
FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES EAST OF THE DIVIDE. OUTSIDE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS, LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE DRY.
BRIEF RIDGING TAKES PLACE, THEN, THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME, AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST KEEPS MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS, SO SNOW CHANCES (15% TO 70%) REMAIN FOR THE WEST, THOUGH
OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO GET DISPLACED TO WYOMING THIS
WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIER SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS RANGE, THOUGH IMPACTS MAINLY LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST MON NOV 18 2024
WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS TERMINALS
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KJAC THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A
TROUGH/WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WITH CONDITIONS DOWN
TO IFR LIKELY (80%) AND LIFR POSSIBLE (30%) WHEN THE SNOW BANDS MOVE
THROUGH. OTHER TERMINALS HAVE TEMPO/PROB30 GROUPS FOR SNOW AND IFR
CONDITIONS. WIND WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. AT KRKS WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AT OTHER
TERMINALS WIND GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20-30 KNOTS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL TERMINALS
A TROUGH/WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW AND LOWERING CIGS AT TIMES
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. KCOD/KWRL/KCPR HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
AND LOW CIGS, WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THESE TERMINALS HAVE PROB30
GROUPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE MAIN SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH.
WIND WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
AT ALL TERMINALS. AT KCPR WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AT OTHER TERMINALS
WIND GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20-30 KNOTS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
OCCUR AT TIMES DURING THE TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
WYZ001-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MST
THIS EVENING FOR WYZ008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ012.
DISCUSSION...WITTMANN
AVIATION...ROWE
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