041
FXUS65 KRIW 160448
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
948 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW AND WIND CONTINUES TODAY, WITH LESSENING IMPACTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGS GUSTY WINDS OR THE
WIND CORRIDOR AND WESTERN WYOMING SNOW.
- WARM AND DRY THE SECOND HALF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
COMING IN THIS MORNING, SNOW AMOUNTS LOOKED TO BE ON TRACK AS OF
ABOUT 5AM, WITH LARGELY 8 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER, SNOW RATES FELL A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING, LIMITING SOME ACCUMULATIONS. AS A
RESULT, WESTERN MOUNTAIN TOTALS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN
FORECASTED. MODELS DID DO A GOOD JOB INDICATING A PUSH OF HEAVIER
SNOW MID-MORNING THOUGH, WHICH SHOULD BRING MUCH OF THE REMAINING
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS STORM. SNOW RATES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, ENDING THIS EVENING. SNOW OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS END
BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE THE WESTERN VALLEYS, LITTLE TO NOTHING
EXPECTED TODAY. A POSSIBLE SHOWER MAY BRING A FEW MOMENTS OF SNOW,
BUT A MAJORITY OF PEOPLE SEE NOTHING. THE CASPER AREA, AS WELL AS
JOHNSON COUNTY, MAY BE THE EXCEPTION AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SOME SNOW (OR RAIN/SNOW MIX GIVEN TEMPERATURES) IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN ABOUT 4PM AND MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY QUICKLY DROPPING FROM THE 40S TO 20S IN THAT TIMEFRAME,
THERE COULD BE SOME ICY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND
BRIDGES, IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL.
THE OTHER WEATHER ELEMENT TODAY IS WIND. SYNOPTIC DRIVEN WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH. STRONGER WINDS ARE ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR. AS
THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING, A STRONG NORTH WIND MOVES THROUGH
JOHNSON COUNTY. GIVEN THIS FAVORED FLOW, BUFFALO IS EXPECTED TO SEE
30 TO 40 MPH WINDS. WITH THE INITIAL PASS, GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WINDS 50 TO
55 MPH. GUSTY WINDS REMAIN FOR THE WIND CORRIDOR AND THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
A QUICK TURN AROUND AFTER TODAY'S STORM MOVES OUT AND ANOTHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAIN IMPACTS ARE
ONCE AGAIN TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 8 TO 12
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TETONS. THE NORTHERN SALT/WYOMING
RANGES AND THE GROS VENTRES ARE MORE IN THE 6 TO 10 RANGE. GIVEN
CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS, WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY PRODUCTS
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WILL ALLOW NIGHT SHIFT TO
REEVALUATE SNOW AMOUNTS.
THE LAST FLAKES SHOULD FALL TUESDAY NIGHT, LEAVING A DRY WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE AREA (OUTSIDE MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE TETONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING). RIDGING WILL KEEP ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, A SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT MUCH OF THIS
SEASON HAS SEEN SO FAR. CONDITIONS LOOK WARM AND DRY THROUGH
DECEMBER 22ND. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SYSTEM THE 23RD,
BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS TERMINALS.
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE TO START THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION FOR FOG AT KBPI, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THIS
AND WILL JUST INCLUDE A LOW SCATTERED DECK FOR NOW. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY, MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING AFTER
12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KJAC BEFORE 18Z AS SNOW
REDEVELOPS. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY BY 21Z. WHILE
CEILINGS WILL LOWER AT KBPI AND KPNA DURING THE AFTERNOON, SNOW
IMPACTS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AT THESE
TERMINALS BY 03Z.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL TERMINALS.
GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 KT WILL CONTINUE AT KCPR TO BEGIN THE
FORECAST. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE BY 09Z, BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN BY 18Z. KCOD WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
THROUGH 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING, AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WITTMANN
AVIATION...LAVOIE/MYERS
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