145
FXUS65 KRIW 161942
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1242 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW HAS BEGUN TO FALL ACROSS WESTERN WY AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAVIER SNOW EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN BY THIS EVENING.
- BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
- ANOTHER SHOT OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN WY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FALL IN JACKSON HOLE AND
WILL ONLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE STORY ACROSS MANY PLACES
EAST OF THE DIVIDE CONTINUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. TAKING A LOOK AT SOME CLIMATE DATA, LOCATIONS SUCH AS
CASPER AND LANDER ARE ON TRACK TO SEE A TOP 10 WARMEST AND DRIEST
DECEMBER ON RECORD, THAT IS IF WE DO NOT SEE A DRASTIC SHIFT IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY
TODAY INTO TUESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
WESTERN WY WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS
EAST OF THE DIVIDE. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS SHIFTS WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT ACROSS THE TETONS AND GROS
VENTRE. WHILE OTHER WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUCH AS THE SALT, WYOMING,
WESTERN WIND RIVER, AND PITCHSTONE PLATEAU SEE AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
10 TO 16 INCHES. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN YNP PARTICULARLY
PITCHSTONE PLATEAU MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 18 INCHES. LOWER
ELEVATIONS SUCH AS JACKSON HOLE AND STAR VALLEY CAN EXPECT AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. AS A RESULT, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR JACKSON HOLE, STAR VALLEY ALONG WITH YNP. DUE TO THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS FORECASTED, THE TETONS, GROS VENTRE, WYOMING/SALT,
AND WESTERN WIND RIVER RANGES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM
WARNINGS. IN REGARDS TO IMPACTS, THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
FALL STARTING AROUND SUNSET MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY CREATE SOME HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS OVER LOCATIONS SUCH AS
TETON PASS FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE TODAY AND THE MORNING COMMUTE
TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN WY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FROM THE
CURRENT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKES ITS WAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE
ONLY IMPACT WILL BE A INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY AND TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WARM UP EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL STARTING WEDNESDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE NEARS AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES DO WARM UP BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE AS A SMALL
RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE SHOWING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW
50S EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHICH IS NEARLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. DEPENDING ON HOW WARM IT
GETS SOME LOCATIONS MAY NEAR RECORD VALUES WITH CURRENT RECORD HIGHS
SITTING IN THE MID 50S FOR PLACES LIKE CASPER AND LANDER. OVERALL,
THE STORY THIS DECEMBER REMAINS THE SAME ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE
WITH ROUNDS OF WESTERN SNOW WHILE AREAS OF EAST OF THE DIVIDE
CONTINUE TO SEE RECORD DRYNESS AND WARMTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1013 AM MST MON DEC 16 2024
WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS TERMINALS
A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN WYOMING TODAY, WHICH
WILL BRING SNOW, GUSTY WIND, AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. SNOW HAS
ALREADY BEEN IMPACTING KJAC, WITH MVFR VIS AND IFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
(LIFR AT TIMES THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING) THROUGH MOST OF
TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN
THIS EVENING AND IMPACT KBPI/KPNA WELL INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR AT KPNA AND MVFR AT KBPI DUE TO
LOW VIS AND CIGS DURING THAT TIME, BUT CONDITIONS MAY DROP ONE
CATEGORY LOWER AT TIMES. SNOW WILL LIGHTEN AND CIGS WILL RISE LATE
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM SLIDES EAST.
THERE IS A CHANCE (15-30%) FOR SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KRKS
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF SNOW PUSHES SOUTHEAST. WIND WILL BE THE
GREATER THREAT AT KRKS, WITH WIND INCREASING OVERNIGHT (GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS) AND INCREASING EVEN MORE LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON (GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS). MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE AT
KJAC THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL TERMINALS
A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN WYOMING TODAY, BUT
IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MOST TERMINALS
WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE (20-30%) OF SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KCPR LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AT KCPR (GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS) AND PERSIST UNTIL A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY. AT THAT TIME WIND
WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND DECREASE.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ001-013.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ012.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ024.
DISCUSSION...DZIEWALTOWSKI
AVIATION...ROWE
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