835
FXUS65 KRIW 172040
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
140 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS WESTERN WY, GRADUALLY COMING
TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CODY FOOTHILLS
AND ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER SHOT OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
THOSE IN STAR VALLEY AND JACKSON HOLE WOKE UP TO A WINTER WONDERLAND
WITH A FRESH LAYER OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. SNOWFALL REPORTS THIS
MORNING SHOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 5 TO 9 INCHES WITH A FEW ISOLATED
REPORTS OF 10 OR MORE INCHES. AS FOR THOSE EAST OF THE DIVIDE, THE
WONDERFUL DRY AND BROWN GROUND IS WHAT CONTINUES TO GREAT US EACH
MORNING. WESTERN WY WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CLEAR OUT
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY HAS BEEN LOOKING BREEZY ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE BUT
RECENTLY MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS
LOOKING QUITE ROBUST WITH 700 MB WINDS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS IS CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE
ABSAROKAS. SPECIFICALLY ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS, ALONG WY-120, WY-
296, US-212, AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF PARK
COUNTY. PROBABILISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING LOCATIONS SUCH AS CODY AND
CLARK HAVING A 40-60% OF SEEING WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 55 MPH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY, THE UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN, AND ALONG THE WIND
CORRIDOR MAY SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME HIGH WIND WATCHES
ARE BEING ISSUED FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS AND THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS
STARTING MID DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 55 OR MORE MPH IN LOCATIONS
SUCH AS CLARK AND CODY. THE CONCERN WITH THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS WILL
BE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 70 MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WY-296 OVER
CHIEF JOSEPH PASS.
WINDS DIMINISH GRADUALLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP AS A RESULT OF
THIS RIDGE WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE FORECASTING HIGHS STARTING FRIDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHICH IS NEARLY 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. DEPENDING
ON HOW WARM IT GETS SOME LOCATIONS MAY NEAR RECORD VALUES WITH
CURRENT RECORD HIGHS SITTING IN THE MID 50S FOR PLACES LIKE CASPER
AND LANDER. LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS THE HOLIDAY WEEK, THERE IS SOME
SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPING. HOWEVER, AT
THIS TIME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS TERMINALS
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR BY MID-AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS
AS SNOW ENDS AND CIGS RISE. FROM THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MODEST IMPROVEMENT AROUND KJAC.
AT OTHER TERMINALS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL END THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AT KRKS, WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEATHER SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE AREA TODAY, BUT THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE REGION, WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
SEVERAL TERMINALS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS THAT WOULD
IMPACT KCOD LATE WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGEST WIND
REACHING THE SURFACE IS LOW (20-30% CHANCE). TERMINALS THAT WILL BE
WINDY ARE KCPR/KCOD, OTHERWISE WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL IMPROVE
THIS EVENING.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR WYZ002-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WYZ023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ024.
DISCUSSION...DZIEWALTOWSKI
AVIATION...ROWE
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