316
FXUS65 KRIW 191123
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
423 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND DECREASES TODAY, BRING A MILD AND TRANQUIL DAY.
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
- THE NEXT POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER MOVES INTO WESTERN WYOMING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
THE FRONT AND TROUGH ARE NOW THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS HAS DECREASED
FROM EARLIER IN MOST LOCATIONS, THE EXCEPTIONS BRING AROUND THE WIND
RIVER BASIN, INCLUDING OUR OFFICE, COURTESY OF AN 140 KNOT JET
MOVING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN WYOMING, PUTTING THE AREA IN THE RIGHT
FRONT QUADRANT OF IT, BRINGING THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM. WIND IS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE NOW THOUGH, AND I HOPE THAT TREND CONTINUES AS
I HAVE A BALLOON LAUNCH IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THESE ARE NO FUN IN
STRONG WIND.
WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE JET
MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. RIDGING
SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND BRING A RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL DAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER IN NORTHWESTERN WYOMING, BUT THE
CHANCE IS LESS THAN 1 OUT OF 10 SO IT WAS LEFT OUT.
THIS DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONLY
CONCERNS WILL WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, GUSTY WIND WILL CONTINUE
AROUND CASPER BUT MID LEVEL WIND IS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH WIND.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER THEN APPROACHES THE WEST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
WITH THE FLOW LARGELY ZONAL AND NOT WITH A DEEP TROUGH, THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ANOTHER FAST MOVER SO SNOW FALL AMOUNTS LOOK MODERATE AT
BEST IN THE WEST, LIGHT TO NON EXISTENT ELSEWHERE WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW. SOME JET ENERGY MOVING CLOSE TO NORTHERN WYOMING
MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH, BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE VERY SMALL. THE MAIN CONCERN EAST OF THE
DIVIDE MAY AGAIN TURN OUT TO BE STRONG WIND, BUT TOO SOON THE
SPECULATE ON POTENTIAL HIGH WIND.
THE FAST MOVING PATTERN MAY BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM ON IT'S HEELS FOR
MONDAY, BUT THIS ON LOOKS SIMILAR, A FAST MOVER WITH MOST OF ANY
SNOW CONFINED TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. AS FOR THE POSSIBLE
CHRISTMAS SNOW EVENT AND A POSSIBLE WHITE CHRISTMAS, TRENDS THIS
MORNING ARE NOT GOOD FOR THIS AS MOST GUIDANCE TAKES THE THE BEST
ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH, LEAVING THE STATE WITH ONLY A GLANCING BLOW.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT, IT LOOKS THE PATTERN OF ZONAL TO FLAT RIDGING
CONTINUES. THIS MEANS NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES, SOME MINOR SNOW EVENTS FOR MAINLY WESTERN
WYOMING. NO MAJOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO POUR IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS HELPED INSULATE THE LOWER LAYERS ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. SOME SMALL PATCHES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING OUT WEST, BUT WITH CIRRUS CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDMORNING, THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY FURTHER FOG
FORMATION TO A MINIMUM. OTHER AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE
GUSTY WINDS AT KRIW. WINDS OVERNIGHT GUSTED ABOVE 40KTS, AND
ARE STILL GUSTING 25 TO 30KTS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND MIDMORNING BEFORE THE LLVL JET MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH,
ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX QUICKLY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FOR ALL SITES.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HATTINGS
AVIATION...STRAUB
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