932
FXUS65 KRIW 191806
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1106 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND DECREASES TODAY, BRING A MILD AND TRANQUIL DAY.
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
- THE NEXT POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER MOVES INTO WESTERN WYOMING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
THE FRONT AND TROUGH ARE NOW THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS HAS DECREASED
FROM EARLIER IN MOST LOCATIONS, THE EXCEPTIONS BRING AROUND THE WIND
RIVER BASIN, INCLUDING OUR OFFICE, COURTESY OF AN 140 KNOT JET
MOVING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN WYOMING, PUTTING THE AREA IN THE RIGHT
FRONT QUADRANT OF IT, BRINGING THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM. WIND IS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE NOW THOUGH, AND I HOPE THAT TREND CONTINUES AS
I HAVE A BALLOON LAUNCH IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THESE ARE NO FUN IN
STRONG WIND.
WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE JET
MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. RIDGING
SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND BRING A RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL DAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER IN NORTHWESTERN WYOMING, BUT THE
CHANCE IS LESS THAN 1 OUT OF 10 SO IT WAS LEFT OUT.
THIS DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONLY
CONCERNS WILL WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, GUSTY WIND WILL CONTINUE
AROUND CASPER BUT MID LEVEL WIND IS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH WIND.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER THEN APPROACHES THE WEST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
WITH THE FLOW LARGELY ZONAL AND NOT WITH A DEEP TROUGH, THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ANOTHER FAST MOVER SO SNOW FALL AMOUNTS LOOK MODERATE AT
BEST IN THE WEST, LIGHT TO NON EXISTENT ELSEWHERE WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW. SOME JET ENERGY MOVING CLOSE TO NORTHERN WYOMING
MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH, BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE VERY SMALL. THE MAIN CONCERN EAST OF THE
DIVIDE MAY AGAIN TURN OUT TO BE STRONG WIND, BUT TOO SOON THE
SPECULATE ON POTENTIAL HIGH WIND.
THE FAST MOVING PATTERN MAY BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM ON IT'S HEELS FOR
MONDAY, BUT THIS ON LOOKS SIMILAR, A FAST MOVER WITH MOST OF ANY
SNOW CONFINED TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. AS FOR THE POSSIBLE
CHRISTMAS SNOW EVENT AND A POSSIBLE WHITE CHRISTMAS, TRENDS THIS
MORNING ARE NOT GOOD FOR THIS AS MOST GUIDANCE TAKES THE THE BEST
ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH, LEAVING THE STATE WITH ONLY A GLANCING BLOW.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT, IT LOOKS THE PATTERN OF ZONAL TO FLAT RIDGING
CONTINUES. THIS MEANS NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES, SOME MINOR SNOW EVENTS FOR MAINLY WESTERN
WYOMING. NO MAJOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
A RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY, WHICH WILL KEEP IT DRY, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL KEEP VFR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND IS SUBSIDING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA, BUT KCPR
WILL STILL HAVE A WEST WIND OF 10-15 KNOTS AND WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
MORNING. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT (BELOW 10 KNOTS) AT ALL OTHER
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HATTINGS
AVIATION...ROWE
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