792
FXUS65 KRIW 290733
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
133 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES
THIS MORNING WITH A CHANCE (30%) CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO COULD OCCUR IN THESE LATTER AREAS.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN
SNOW OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND THE
ABSAROKAS, STARTING 4PM SATURDAY FOR SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN
6-12 INCHES.
- A WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED INTO NATRONA COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING AS
EXPECTED, WITH A SFC REFLECTION OF THE MID LEVEL LOW EVIDENT ON
RADAR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVER THE BIGHORN BASIN WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.3" TO 0.5" OVER
JOHNSON/NATRONA COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z ARE STILL EXPECTED. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO DROP AS LOW AS 6500FT THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE BIGHORNS FROM THIS EVENT.
RAIN SHOWERS/MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER JOHNSON COUNTY/THE
BIGHORNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND GRADUALLY END THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES (20-40%) OVER
THE I-80 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS OF THE WIND RIVER
AND ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE WIND RIVER
BASIN THIS EVENING AFTER 00Z. RAIN SHOWERS/MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS THROUGH 06Z AS THE
REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW MOVE OVER THE CWA. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FOR MOST
AREAS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z SUNDAY. THE MAIN LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR
TRACK AS THE MIDLEVEL CURRENTLY, MOVING ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY
TOWARD SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SUNDAY. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT, WITH THE
BETTER ACCUMULATIONS STAYING IN GRASSY AREAS. CONFIDENCE FOR HIGHER
SNOWFALL TOTALS (6 TO 12 INCHES) ARE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BIGHORN AND WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
ABSAROKAS. OTHERWISE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES.
PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE, FROM
JACKSON TO WAMSUTTER, BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
EXITS EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LOVELL-
TO-CASPER LINE, WITH ANY SNOW REMAINING CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS. AS
THIS MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE EAST, ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION IRT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE PACNW. THIS WILL KEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING OVER THE REGION AND COULD RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND SNOW
IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EAST OF
THE DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL. SIMILAR ACTIVITY WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND INCLUDE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS A TROUGH FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER THE COWBOY STATE. THE REMNANTS OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW COULD
REACH THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
KEEPING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 951 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY BE
ISOLATED THROUGH AROUND 18Z FOR MOST TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE AROUND KCPR, WHERE SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT
KCPR WILL KEEP IFR CIGS IN THE AREA, EVEN AFTER PRECIPITATION
ENDS, AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE, CIGS REMAIN AROUND FL100 THROUGH THE PERIOD
FOR ALL TERMINALS. SKIES DO START TO CLEAR A BIT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING AT AROUND 23Z SATURDAY, AND
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR KCPR,
KWRL, KRIW, AND KLND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON SMOKE, ICING, AND TURBULENCE
FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
SUNDAY FOR WYZ002-015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT
SUNDAY FOR WYZ009.
DISCUSSION...LAVOIE
AVIATION...HATTINGS
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