578
FXUS65 KRIW 291732
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1132 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWER CHANCES (20-40%) CONTINUE ACROSS JOHNSON AND
NATRONA COUNTIES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES (40-50%)
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN
THESE AREAS.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT.
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND THE
ABSAROKAS, STARTING 4PM SATURDAY FOR SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN 6-12
INCHES.
- THIS WETTER AND SEASONABLE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED INTO NATRONA COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING AS
EXPECTED, WITH A SFC REFLECTION OF THE MID LEVEL LOW EVIDENT ON
RADAR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVER THE BIGHORN BASIN WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.3" TO 0.5" OVER
JOHNSON/NATRONA COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z ARE STILL EXPECTED. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO DROP AS LOW AS 6500FT THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE BIGHORNS FROM THIS EVENT.
RAIN SHOWERS/MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER JOHNSON COUNTY/THE
BIGHORNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND GRADUALLY END THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES (20-40%) OVER
THE I-80 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS OF THE WIND RIVER
AND ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE WIND RIVER
BASIN THIS EVENING AFTER 00Z. RAIN SHOWERS/MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS THROUGH 06Z AS THE
REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW MOVE OVER THE CWA. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FOR MOST
AREAS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z SUNDAY. THE MAIN LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR
TRACK AS THE MIDLEVEL CURRENTLY, MOVING ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY
TOWARD SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SUNDAY. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT, WITH THE
BETTER ACCUMULATIONS STAYING IN GRASSY AREAS. CONFIDENCE FOR HIGHER
SNOWFALL TOTALS (6 TO 12 INCHES) ARE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BIGHORN AND WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
ABSAROKAS. OTHERWISE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES.
PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE, FROM
JACKSON TO WAMSUTTER, BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
EXITS EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LOVELL-
TO-CASPER LINE, WITH ANY SNOW REMAINING CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS. AS
THIS MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE EAST, ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION IRT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE PACNW. THIS WILL KEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING OVER THE REGION AND COULD RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND SNOW
IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EAST OF
THE DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL. SIMILAR ACTIVITY WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND INCLUDE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS A TROUGH FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER THE COWBOY STATE. THE REMNANTS OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW COULD
REACH THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
KEEPING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SCATTER TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON,
EXCEPT AT KCPR. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WILL OCCUR FROM THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM AS RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPS. MOST TERMINALS WILL HAVE
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH IFR AT KCPR
DUE TO LOW CIGS.
PRECIPITATION IS SET TO BEGIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS
AS AN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR
TO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SNOW AND WOULD MAINLY IMPACT KRKS/KLND. SOME
ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE (15%) THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. INITIALLY, PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL
DROP TO MVFR/IFR FOR MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT, WITH LIFR AT KLND AND
POSSIBLY (30%) AT KRIW. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (30%)
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
SUNDAY FOR WYZ002-015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT
SUNDAY FOR WYZ009.
DISCUSSION...LAVOIE
AVIATION...ROWE
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