080   
FXUS65 KRIW 310349  
AFDRIW  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY  
949 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
  
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, BUT  
  ANY ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.  
  
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY (70-80%) FOR   
  MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW   
  OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS.  
  
- THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE  
  WEEK, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE HEADING INTO THE  
  LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THIS  
  UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
  
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THIS WEEK AND BEGIN TO  
  INCREASE BY NEXT SUNDAY.  
  
  
   
UPDATE  
  
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
  
THE LOW CONTINUES SLIDING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL WYOMING   
THIS MORNING, WHICH IS RIGHT ON TRACK. AN AREA OF MODERATE   
SNOWFALL DEVELOPED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW AND DROPPED A   
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN, AND CONTINUES TO   
DROP SNOW IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS THIS   
AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS ONLY HAD SNOW ACCUMULATE ON ELEVATED   
SURFACES AND IN THE GRASS, BUT THERE WAS ABOUT AN INCH OF SLUSHY  
SNOW ON ROADWAYS IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS SLUSH HAS MELTED AS   
THE SNOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND   
SKIES CLEAR A BIT. EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE  
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING AS CONVECTIVE SNOW   
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL RESULT IN A FEW   
MORE INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ABSAROKA   
MOUNTAINS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF  
THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EXPIRED AT NOON TODAY AS SNOW HAS ALL   
BUT ENDED THERE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BIGHORNS   
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER FEW   
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL THERE. ALL SNOW SHOWERS WILL END THIS  
EVENING, BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT  
AND BRINGS SNOW CHANCES BACK INTO WESTERN WYOMING AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
  
  
   
DISCUSSION  
  
ISSUED AT 111 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
  
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE (BASICALLY) ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE   
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, WHICH WOULD BE FROM YELLOWSTONE TO   
THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SWEETWATER   
COUNTY. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY IN   
THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO GRASSY  
AREAS AFTER SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS,   
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
  
A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH   
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE PACNW COAST. THIS WILL KEEP   
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE REGION AND TROUGHS EJECTING   
FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVE OVER THE CWA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL   
REACH FAR WESTERN PORTIONS MONDAY MORNING, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF  
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.   
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE   
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE   
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE DIVIDE, AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES   
EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW   
LEVELS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000FT ACROSS MOST OF THE   
FORECAST AREA, BUT AGAIN ANY SNOW THAT FALLS DURING THE DAY WILL  
HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AND ACCUMULATE IN GRASSY AREAS.   
  
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AND   
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A MIDLEVEL LOW, DROPPING TEMPERATURES   
AND ALLOW FOR RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER WESTERN PORTIONS.   
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY, AS THE   
LOW SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE BIGHORN BASIN AND JOHNSON/NATRONA   
COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN   
PORTIONS WILL OCCUR UNDER A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LEAF FROM THE   
MIDLEVEL LOW. RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF   
THE BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS   
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS   
OVER THE BLACK HILLS.   
  
FORECAST DETAILS BECOME LESS CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS REMAIN   
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH   
INFLUENCE FROM THE EXITING LOW/STORM REMAINS. ADDITIONALLY, THE   
REMNANTS FROM THE PACNW LOW LOOK TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE FOUR   
CORNERS REGION, SO FORECAST DETAILS ARE HIGHLY IN FLUX THROUGH THE   
REST OF THE PERIOD. NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR WET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE   
OR MORE DRIER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.  
  
  
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/  
  
ISSUED AT 950 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
  
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INITIAL   
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. MOST   
LIKELY IMPACTS FROM THIS INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE WOULD BE AT   
KJAC (30% CHANCE) AND KBPI, KPNA AND KJAC (15-30% CHANCES).   
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE (20% CHANCE) WITH THESE   
SHOWERS.   
  
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING, WITH   
WEST OF THE DIVIDE TERMINALS STARTING TO SEE MVFR/IFR IMPACTS AFTER   
SUNRISE. ANY PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE AND  
IT REMAINS DIFFICULT AT BEST TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND   
LOCATIONS. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE, HAVE MOSTLY LEFT SHOWER   
MENTIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT OF THE TAFS FOR   
NOW. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT SEVERAL TERMINALS MONDAY   
AFTERNOON AS WELL, WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE AT KCOD, KCPR,   
AND KRKS. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING  
MONDAY NIGHT (1 CHANCE IN 2), INCLUDING IN VICINITY OF KRKS,  
MAINLY AFTER 03Z TUESDAY.  
  
  
   
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
NONE.  
  
  
  
  
  
UPDATE...ROWE  
DISCUSSION...LAVOIE  
AVIATION...HATTINGS  
 
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