686
FXUS65 KRIW 310750
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
150 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS PUSH BACK IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING, WITH
MOUNTAINS SNOW WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND MAINLY RAIN FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
- PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND LOWER
VALLEY RAIN ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT.
- SHOWERS LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- DRYER TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
BRIEF INDUCED RIDGING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH PUSHES CLOSER. THIS WILL OPEN THE
PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS WILL PUSH BACK IN
FROM THE WEST SOON AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN EXPECTED AS THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE THE 7000 FOOT MARK. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS, AND AS SUCH, HAVE
ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH
THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING TRAVEL OVER THE PASSES. 4 TO 8 INCHES IS
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL (50-70%) FOR THESE AREAS
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN UP TO A
FOOT POSSIBLE (40-50%).
HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE DIVIDE WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
LOWER VALLEY RAIN EXPECTED. LIMITED QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED,
THOUGH, WITH ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR LOWER
VALLEYS. THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED STORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR SWEETWATER COUNTY ALONG
THE I-80 CORRIDOR. SOME CAPE VALUES UP TO 100-200 J/KG,
INDICATIVE OF THIS OCCURRENCE, ALBEIT LOW. REGARDLESS, IMPACTS
WILL BE LIMITED OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF DOWNPOUR.
SHOWERS LINGER INTO TUESDAY, BUT OF LESS INTENSITY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS DIPS SOUTH OF THE CWA WRAPPING IN THE EASTERLY FLOW FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATE IN THE DAY. POSSIBLE VERY LIGHT
SNOW AT THAT POINT FOR THE LOWER TERRAIN WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WITH THE MAIN FINGER OF THE PFJ WELL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LINGER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WELL BUT LIMITED IN NATURE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY WITH
THE MAIN WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SETS MORE IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER ROCKIES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 950 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. MOST
LIKELY IMPACTS FROM THIS INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE WOULD BE AT
KJAC (30% CHANCE) AND KBPI, KPNA AND KJAC (15-30% CHANCES).
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE (20% CHANCE) WITH THESE
SHOWERS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING, WITH
WEST OF THE DIVIDE TERMINALS STARTING TO SEE MVFR/IFR IMPACTS AFTER
SUNRISE. ANY PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE AND
IT REMAINS DIFFICULT AT BEST TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATIONS. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE, HAVE MOSTLY LEFT SHOWER
MENTIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT OF THE TAFS FOR
NOW. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT SEVERAL TERMINALS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL, WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE AT KCOD, KCPR,
AND KRKS. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING
MONDAY NIGHT (1 CHANCE IN 2), INCLUDING IN VICINITY OF KRKS,
MAINLY AFTER 03Z TUESDAY.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR WYZ001-012-014-024.
UPDATE...ROWE
DISCUSSION...LOWE
AVIATION...HATTINGS
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