962
FXUS65 KRIW 011110
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
510 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW ACROSS WESTERN MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TUESDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE BIGHORNS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS.
- LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
- WARMING TREND AND MAINLY DRY SUNDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR
SOUTHERN NATRONA TO EASTERN SWEETWATER. ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED IN
THAT NECK OF THE WOODS WITH ONGOING SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS HAS ENDED BUT ONGOING
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY COMING TO END BY EVENING
TIME. LEESIDE TROUGHING OFF THE NORTHERN BIGHORNS WILL BRING
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THAT WILL GIVE DECENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAIN PASSES. 6 TO 12 INCHES
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AMOUNTS (70-80%) TO AFFECT GRANITE AND
POWDER RIVER BASIN. HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY, HIGHLIGHTING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO BE IN AFFECT ACROSS THOSE TIMEFRAMES WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITIES AND PVA ANOMALIES. THIS WILL PUSH EAST
BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS FOR
THIS AREA AND OTHERS EAST OF THE DIVIDE HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY SEEING GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH FOR
THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAIN PASS
AREAS OF SNOW.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY, THE MAIN TROUGH EXTENDS FURTHER
SOUTH PULLING THE ENERGY WITH THE MAIN FINER OF THE PFJ WELL TO
THE SOUTH EXITING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND MID-WEST. SOME
INSTABILITY REMAINS WITH THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING WITH SPORADIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, DEPENDENT ON
ELEVATION. LESS ACTIVITY REGARDLESS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH EVER INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALOFT.
STRONG MODEL CONVEYANCE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING THAT WILL GIVE
WAY TO A DRY AND WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED AND PUSH TOWARDS THE MID TO
END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
TODAY'S FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW BANDS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN LARGE DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND/OR
PLACEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION, MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
HAZARDS FOR THE TAFS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH AVERAGES FOR
PREVAILING AND PROB30 GROUPS, SO SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR A COUPLE
HOURS OUTSIDE WHAT IS INDICATED IN TAFS. SNOW SHOWERS COULD ALSO
ENTIRELY MISS A SITE. FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY BE CHANGING
QUICKLY (RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR) AS SHOWERS OR BANDS PASS OVER A
SITE, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY (MONDAY). EVEN WITH
PREVAILING SNOW GROUPS, THERE COULD BE BREAKS IN SNOW AND IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. THESE MAY WARRANT TEMPO GROUPS AS CONFIDENCE DICTATES
CLOSER TO THIS COMING AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ001-
012-014-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR WYZ008-009.
DISCUSSION...LOWE
AVIATION...WITTMANN
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