226
FXUS65 KRIW 011758
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1158 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CHANCES (40-70%) CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LOWER ELEVATION AREAS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES (50-70%) EXIST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- A WARMING TREND IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SUNDAY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR
SOUTHERN NATRONA TO EASTERN SWEETWATER. ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED IN
THAT NECK OF THE WOODS WITH ONGOING SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS HAS ENDED BUT ONGOING
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY COMING TO END BY EVENING
TIME. LEESIDE TROUGHING OFF THE NORTHERN BIGHORNS WILL BRING
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THAT WILL GIVE DECENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAIN PASSES. 6 TO 12 INCHES
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AMOUNTS (70-80%) TO AFFECT GRANITE AND
POWDER RIVER BASIN. HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY, HIGHLIGHTING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO BE IN AFFECT ACROSS THOSE TIMEFRAMES WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITIES AND PVA ANOMALIES. THIS WILL PUSH EAST
BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS FOR
THIS AREA AND OTHERS EAST OF THE DIVIDE HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY SEEING GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH FOR
THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAIN PASS
AREAS OF SNOW.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY, THE MAIN TROUGH EXTENDS FURTHER
SOUTH PULLING THE ENERGY WITH THE MAIN FINER OF THE PFJ WELL TO
THE SOUTH EXITING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND MID-WEST. SOME
INSTABILITY REMAINS WITH THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING WITH SPORADIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, DEPENDENT ON
ELEVATION. LESS ACTIVITY REGARDLESS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH EVER INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALOFT.
STRONG MODEL CONVEYANCE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING THAT WILL GIVE
WAY TO A DRY AND WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED AND PUSH TOWARDS THE MID TO
END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING REMAINS A FORECAST
CHALLENGE, AND TAFS REFLECT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THIS WITH LESS
PREVAILING IMPACTS AND MORE TEMPO/PROB30 GROUPS. STILL, MVFR TO IFR
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES FOR MOST TERMINALS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH CHANCES GENERALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. ONE THING TO
NOTE WILL BE A COLD FRONT SURGE AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
MVFR CEILINGS TO KCOD, KWRL, AND KCPR. KCOD IS ALSO FAVORED TO SEE
SNOW BEGIN AGAIN DURING THIS TIME.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ001-
012-014-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ008-
009.
DISCUSSION...LOWE
AVIATION...MYERS
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