578
FXUS65 KRIW 060352
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
952 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND REMAINS BREEZY TONIGHT AND DECREASES TUESDAY MORNING.
- COLD TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW, AND SNOW LEVELS
POSSIBLY FALLING AS LOW AS 5000 FEET AT TIMES.
- DRIER, WARMER, AND QUITE PLEASANT FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
OVERALL FORECAST AND MESSAGE REMAINS VERY SIMILAR FOR THE SPRING
STORM MOVING IN TODAY (SEE FULL DISCUSSION BELOW). HAVE UPDATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE,
WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW STARTING THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW. OF NOTE, THERE WERE SOME SLIGHT,
SPOTTY INCREASES OVER NATRONA COUNTY, LIKELY A RESULT OF HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE LIKELY OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
ALREADY, OR WILL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE BETTER PUSH OF
COLDER AIR IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY. 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEGATIVE 4 TO NEGATIVE 6 CELSIUS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD PUT SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 5200 AND 6000
FEET FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, SO SOME MORNING SNOW IS STILL
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
IF YOU HAVE BEEN IN A CAR ACCIDENT, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE BEEN
REAR ENDED, YOU PROBABLY KNOW ABOUT THE NECK INJURY CALLED
WHIPLASH. IT IS CAUSED BY THE RAPID AND SUDDEN MOVEMENT OF YOUR
NECK. AND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WE WILL HAVE WHAT I CALL
WEATHER WHIPLASH. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP
TO 40 DEGREES COLDER TUESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO OUR VERY WARM
SUNDAY. AND, WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL COME THE RETURN
OF SOME OF THE WHITE STUFF THAT STARTS WITH THE LETTER "S", THIS
INCLUDES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE OUT POPULATION CENTERS
ARE. NOT ALL OF THEM, BUT SOME. SO, LETS GET INTO IT.
WE HAVE THREE CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY: RAINFALL,
SNOW AND WIND. WE WILL START WITH RAINFALL, OR SHOULD I SAY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY IS NOW
MOVING INTO MONTANA AND MOST AREAS SHOULD START OFF THE DAY LARGELY
DRY AND MUCH OF THE MORNING MAY END UP BEING DRY. THIS WILL CHANGE
THOUGH AS WE GET INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE AREA GETS INTO A
SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS, ONE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE OTHER A TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF MONTANA. PRECIPITATION WILL FILL IN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MONTANA SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD AND FLOW TURNS
MORE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY, ENHANCING UPSLOPE FLOW. AS A RESULT,
THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EAST FACING
SLOPES AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE BIGHORNS, ABSAROKAS, WIND RIVER
RANGE AND POSSIBLY CASPER MOUNTAIN. A SECONDARY AREA MAY OCCUR
IN SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING, ESPECIALLY IN LINCOLN COUNTY. ALL OF
THESE AREAS HAVE AT LEAST A 1 OUT OF 2 CHANCE OF QPF AMOUNTS
OVER A HALF AN INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SOME AREAS
HAVING AS MUCH AS A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF AN INCH OR MORE OF
PRECIPITATION, LIKE THE LANDER FOOTHILLS. AS FOR FLOODING
CHANCES, THERE ARE SOME. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS TO BE A COLDER
SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WHEN THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF
THE DIVIDE WHERE SNOW LEVELS WOULD FALL TO AROUND 7500 FEET BY
6 PM THIS EVENING, SHUTTING OF RAPID SNOWMELT. THE MAIN CONCERN
MAY BE THE STAR VALLEY, WHERE SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGHER, AROUND
9000 FEET. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A FLOOD WATCH, BUT THIS
NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HEAVIEST QPF MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
NOW ON TO THE SNOWY PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
HIGH THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT BEGIN TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE MONTANA SYSTEM. THE QUESTION THIS MORNING IS
HOW LOW WILL THEY GO. THIS DEPENDS ON LOCATION. MOST LOCATIONS WEST
OF THE DIVIDE ONLY HAVE 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FALL TO AS LOW AS
MINUS 3 CELSIUS, KEEPING THE POPULATIONS CENTERS MAINLY RAIN OR ONLY
A SMALL, SLUSHY ACCUMULATION. THINGS GET MORE COMPLICATED EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. WE DID ISSUE SOME HIGHLIGHTS THIS MORNING FOR THE
BIGHORN RANGE AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WIND RIVER RANGE. AMOUNTS
ARE BORDERLINE, BUT BOTH LOCATIONS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE (GREATER
THAN A 3 IN 4 CHANCE) OF SEEING 6 INCHES OR MORE OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS. IN ADDITION, WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING AT NIGHT,
THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATION ON THE PASSES. WE
ALSO THOUGHT ABOUT ONE FOR THE ABSAROKAS. HOWEVER, IMPACTS ARE LESS
HERE GIVEN THE ONLY IMPACTED MAIN ROAD IS STILL HAS A SEASONAL
CLOSURE. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE OVER 6 INCHES
THOUGH. WITH THE HEAVIEST NOW EXPECTED UNTIL TONIGHT, THE DAY
SHIFT CAN TAKE A FINAL LOOK AT IT.
NOW FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WE HAVE A TWO MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN, THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND WESTERN BIGHORN BASIN AND THE
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. ELSEWHERE, SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN OR JUST A RAIN / SNOW MIX. IN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED LOCATIONS, 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FALL TO AS LOW AS
MINUS 5 TO MINUS 6.5 CELSIUS, WHICH WOULD PUT SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN 5200 TO 6000 FEET. ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS BETWEEN CODY
AND THERMOPOLIS, WHERE HIGHWAY 120 RISES TO AROUND 6000 FEET.
THE OTHER IS THE WIND RIVER BASIN, ESPECIALLY WEST OF RIVERTON
AND THE LANDER FOOTHILLS. THIS IS WHERE 1 OR 2 DEGREES CAN MAKE
A BIG DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL ALSO MATTER, WHERE
HEAVY RATES WILL LEAD TO HEAVY SNOW AND LIGHTER RATES WILL SEE
MAINLY RAIN. IN ADDITION, THE GROUND IS WARM WITH THE RECENT
WARM DAYS AND SNOW MAY HAVE TROUBLE STICKING INITIALLY,
ESPECIALLY ON PAVED SURFACES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ALSO SPLIT
WITH THE HREF ENSEMBLE MUCH SNOWIER THAN THE NBM VERSION. AT
THIS TIME, WITH MOST LOCATIONS HAVING LESS THAN 1 IN 2 CHANCE OF
3 INCHES OR MORE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR NOW.
HOWEVER, IN THESE LOCATIONS, DON'T BE SURPRISED IF YOU WAKE UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TUESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH MAINLY ON NON
PAVED SURFACES. ANY IMPACTS SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES RISE AND THE STRONG MAY SUN MELTS THE SNOW.
NOW FOR THE WIND PORTION. THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
ADVECTION / NORTHWEST FLOW LOCATIONS, MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN
BASIN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE IN
SWEETWATER COUNTY AS WELL. ONE THING WE ARE LACKING IN NORTHERN
WYOMING IS LACK OF GOOD JET FORCING. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ONLY
GIVES AROUND 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF GUSTS PAST 50 MPH AROUND BUFFALO WITH
SIMILAR CHANCES IN THE BIGHORN BASIN. SO, NO HIGHLIGHTS HERE. THE
STRONGEST WIND WOULD BE THIS EVENING THOUGH, SO THERE IS STILL TIME
TO ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE DAY. THE OTHER AREA IS SWEETWATER
COUNTY. THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE JET ENERGY HERE AND WE DO HAVE A
FEW 50 KNOT WIND BARBS. BUT AGAIN, MOST AREAS HAVE LESS THAN 1 IN 2
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS PAST 50 MPH AND THE AREAS THAT DO HAVE FEW
PEOPLE, ROADS OR IMPACTS. SO AGAIN, NO HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE ISSUED. IT
WILL BE RATHER WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH, WITH
STRONG WINDS LINGERING IN SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
THINGS WIND DOWN.
THINGS LOOK QUIETER AND WARMER ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY. WARMER WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 945 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL TERMINALS
SNOW, WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY
CEILINGS), WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH 18Z. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX
BACK INTO THE SNOW OR CHANGE BACK TO RAIN AFTER 16Z. LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON RUNWAYS AFTER SUNRISE.
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO IFR AFTER 18Z FOR MOST SITES
WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND BEGINNING TO WANE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY 02Z, BUT COULD LINGER AT KCPR THROUGH 05Z. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS TERMINALS
PRECIPITATION HAS PRIMARILY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. ONE EXCEPTION IS KRKS, WHERE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z. RAIN SHOWERS COULD
ALSO HIT KBPI BETWEEN 14Z AND 20Z. MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z, EXCEPT AT KRKS, WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH 21Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL THEN RETURN
AFTER 01Z.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON SMOKE, ICING, AND TURBULENCE
FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ008-009-
015.
UPDATE...WITTMANN
DISCUSSION...HATTINGS
AVIATION...LAVOIE
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