120
FXUS65 KRIW 060812
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
212 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOW TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG WIND
CONTINUING IN SWEETWATER COUNTY.
- WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WHEN I WAS GROWING UP BACK IN THE TIMES WHEN DINOSAURS ROAMED THE
EARTH (THE 70S AND 80S FOR REFERENCE), I OFTEN ENTERTAINED MYSELF
AFTER SCHOOL BY WATCHING RE-RUNS OF OLD SITCOMS. AND ONE MY
FAVORITES WAS THE SECRET AGENT PARODY GET SMART. AND ONE DON ADAMS'
(THE STAR OF THE SHOW) CATCH PHRASES WAS "MISSED IT BY THAT MUCH",
IMPLYING A CLOSE MISS.
IN REGARDS TO THIS MORNING, IT WAS THE SNOW. THE COLD CAME IN A
LITTLE FASTER AND DEEPER THAN I THOUGHT YESTERDAY MORNING. THE
RESULT IS BIGGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THEN I THOUGHT. LANDER WAS
ALREADY UP TO 2 INCHES AT MIDNIGHT, AND WE HAVE SOME ACCUMULATION AT
THE OFFICE AS WELL. MOST ROADS BELOW AROUND 5800 FEET ARE MAINLY WET
THOUGH, INCLUDING AT OUR OFFICE WHERE THE PARKING LOT HAS REMAINED
JUST WET. WE DO HAVE SOME SLICK ROADS ABOVE THIS THOUGH, WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH PASS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER, WE CAN SEE THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL. ALL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ENDING AROUND SUNRISE. IN
ADDITION, THE STRONG MAY SUN WILL HAVE AN IMPACT, MELTING THE SNOW
OFF MOST ROADS BY MID MORNING AND THE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LESS
INTENSE PRECIPITATION RATES WILL SEE A LOT OF SNOW MIX WITH OR
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE CHANCES OF GREATER
THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW AFTER 6 AM ARE AT MOST 1 OUT OF 3 IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME DIFFICULT CONDITIONS
OVER THE PASSES IN THE MORNING THOUGH, SO WE WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES UP FOR NOW. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY,
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL DECREASE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
ALMOST ALL OF THEM OVER BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COLD DAY THROUGH, WITH MANY AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE STRUGGLING TO
REACH 40 DEGREES. MOST AREAS WILL ALSO SEE THE GUSTY WIND DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHERN WYOMING, ESPECIALLY
SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN. MANY
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY, HAVE A GREATER
THAN 1 IN 2 CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS PAST 40 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS QUIETER, NOT QUIET, BUT QUIETER. A
BIT OF LINGERING MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE COULD KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A CLOSE TO NORMAL SPRING DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FLOW THEN TURNS MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST, AND AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WYOMING WILL BE NEAR
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THOUGH, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND BRING A COUPLE OF
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS
POINT THOUGH, NO STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED AND MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON ANY GIVEN DAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BRING A WARM AND
DRY DAY TO THE AREA. AFTER THAT THE RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN AND BRING A
RETURN OF A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AT THIS POINT, SUNDAY MAY HAVE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE WEST. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
POTENTIALLY INTERESTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE
AREA, BUT DETAILS THIS FAR OUT ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 945 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL TERMINALS
SNOW, WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY
CEILINGS), WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH 18Z. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX
BACK INTO THE SNOW OR CHANGE BACK TO RAIN AFTER 16Z. LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON RUNWAYS AFTER SUNRISE.
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO IFR AFTER 18Z FOR MOST SITES
WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND BEGINNING TO WANE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY 02Z, BUT COULD LINGER AT KCPR THROUGH 05Z. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS TERMINALS
PRECIPITATION HAS PRIMARILY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. ONE EXCEPTION IS KRKS, WHERE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z. RAIN SHOWERS COULD
ALSO HIT KBPI BETWEEN 14Z AND 20Z. MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z, EXCEPT AT KRKS, WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH 21Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL THEN RETURN
AFTER 01Z.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON SMOKE, ICING, AND TURBULENCE
FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ008-009-
015.
DISCUSSION...HATTINGS
AVIATION...LAVOIE/DZIEWALTOWSKI
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