203
FXUS65 KRIW 070929
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
329 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS.
- WARMER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND, WITH
WARMER LOCATIONS MAKING A RUN AT HIGHS AROUND 90.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
AFTER THE WINTERY WEATHER OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, SPRING
WILL CONTINUE IT'S SWING OF THE PENDULUM, THIS TIME INTO SPRING
AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF SUMMER. THINGS ARE LARGELY QUIET RIGHT
NOW, WITH RADAR ONLY SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES IN NATRONA COUNTY.
WE STILL HAVE CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL SLOWLY PART FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MOVES AWAY. SO, TODAY
LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLE DRY FOR THE AREA. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AROUND FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA,
BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ONE.
THINGS WILL TURN A BIT MORE ACTIVE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND BRING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH AN EMPHASIS ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH WILL HAVE BETTER
FORCING. EVEN HERE, THE CHANCE OF ANY LOCATION SEEING ONE IS
ONLY AROUND 1 OUT OF 3 AND MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
BIG CHANGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS FLOW TURNS TO SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHES TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, AVERAGING ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF HIGHS IN THE 80S IN
THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FOR
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. ON THIS DAY,
MOST MODELS AGREE WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WITH TAPERING CHANCES FURTHER WEST. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND WARM DAY AT THIS POINT. A
APPROACHING TROUGH FOR SUNDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SO THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A 50 - 50 TYPE.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST SO FAR THIS
CALENDAR YEAR. SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS, LIKE WORLAND AND
GREYBULL, COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90 DEGREES FOR A HIGH, ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN INCREASING WIND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MAY ENHANCE
MIXING. IF IT HAPPENS AT GREYBULL, IT COULD TIE THE EARLIEST 90
DEGREE HIGH IN STATION HISTORY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A LOT DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THERE IS A LACK OF AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS SYSTEM. IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A DECENT RAIN OR EVEN
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON THE SCENARIO. MY GUT FEELING
IS THAT IT WILL BE SLOWER, SINCE THE MODELS USUALLY HAVE A FAST
BIAS THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER, DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ARE ANYONES GUESS AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 945 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCPR THROUGH 18Z, QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME, BUT IS EXPECTED TO STAY FURTHER EAST FOR THE TIME
BEING.VFR CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURN BY 20Z, AS CEILINGS LIFT AND
CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY THEN END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR CEILINGS AT KRKS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO LIFR BY THE START
OF THE FORECAST, AS WINDS FINALLY DECREASE, DROPPING TO
VLIFR/LIFR AFTER 08Z. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
15Z, IMPROVING TO MVFR. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND
LIFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KBPI, KPNA AND KRIW COULD HAVE LIGHT FOG BEFORE 12Z AND LEFT
THEN MENTION OF MARGINAL MVFR VIS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
ANY VIS RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT NO LATER THAN 16Z.
OTHERWISE, EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS (11 KT OR LESS) FOR MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING AND
CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HATTINGS
AVIATION...LAVOIE/HENSLEY
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