799  
FXUS65 KRIW 011726  
AFDRIW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY  
1126 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE WITH ISOLATED  
CHANCES FOR MOSTLY VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS DURING  
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY 40-60 MPH OUTFLOWS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE.  
 
- AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL CREATE INCREASED CHANCES FOR DAILY  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING WEDNESDAY.  
 
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK  
WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
JUNE HAS CONCLUDED AND TODAY MARKS THE START OF JULY. THE UPCOMING  
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY IS LOOKING WARM AND  
UNSETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE COWBOY STATE. WARM, ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DAILY CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES  
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE  
AROUND THE SAME TIME WITH DAILY COVERAGE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD  
STARTING WEDNESDAY.  
 
TODAY, THE FIRST DAY OF JULY, AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE WARM WITH  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO  
UPPER 80S WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND LOW TO MID 90S EAST OF THE DIVIDE.  
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY WILL BE THE  
KEY WEATHER MAKER THROUGH THE WEEK. MULTIPLE SMALL DISTURBANCES WILL  
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEK BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY WILL SEE FAIRLY LIMITED  
CONVECTION BEING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT THE  
ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY, WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM  
DEVELOPMENT AND LIKELY PRODUCE MAINLY VIRGA SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG OUTFLOW  
WINDS DUE TO LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 40 TO 60 DEGREES IN SOME  
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN WY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.  
 
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MUCH OF THE SAME WITH WARM ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONE  
DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE INFLUX OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE. THE  
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL AID IN  
FUNNELING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MODELS SHOW PWAT VALUES OF 0.60  
TO 0.90 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE NEARLY 100 TO 150% ABOVE NORMAL. THIS  
MOISTURE WILL AID IN CREATING MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL  
STILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL AS CAPE VALUES ONLY LOOK TO BE AROUND 500-  
800 J/KG. OTHER FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE  
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT.  
 
THURSDAY WILL SEE THE WARM AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUE. HOWEVER,  
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER WITH PWATS NEARING 1 INCH  
TRANSLATING TO ALMOST 200% ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THIS WILL INCREASE  
THE CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. WHILE STORM MOTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STATIONARY  
THERE WILL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING  
AS A RESULT OF THIS INCREASED INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THE OTHER CONCERN  
THAT DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR STRONG  
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE INCREASED CHANCES ARE DUE TO HIGHER CAPE VALUES  
ALONG WITH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AS A RESULT OF A LEESIDE LOW  
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE STILL A FEW DAYS OUT THE  
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN WY  
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NATRONA AND JOHNSON COUNTIES.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS THE 4TH OF JULY, THE UNSETTLED WEATHER  
PERSISTS WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK,  
RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES. ABOVE NORMAL PWATS LINGER WHICH  
WOULD CREATE ANOTHER DAY WITH CHANCES FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND  
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE BEST CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING TO  
BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WY. THESE MAY CREATE SOME  
DIFFICULTIES WHEN IT COMES TO INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. WHILE  
THE FORECAST IS NOT SET IN STONE, IT IS STARTING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY  
THAT FRIDAY MAY BE QUITE UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE COWBOY STATE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY FROM 20Z  
THROUGH 01Z. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK VIRGA  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION  
REACHING THE GROUND. HAVE THUS REMOVED MENTIONS OF ANY -RA WITH THE  
TS MENTIONS IN THE PROB30 GROUPS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE A  
CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE  
REGARDING OUTFLOW WINDS IS LOW, AND THUS HAVE JUST LEFT THE VRB  
WINDS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 35KT IN THE TAFS WITH THE THE PROB30 TS  
MENTIONS. BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE  
EVENING, BUT SHOULD SCATTER OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY BEFORE 06Z. LIGHT  
WINDS (LESS THAN 8KTS) WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
MORNING.  
 
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR  
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON SMOKE, ICING, AND TURBULENCE  
FORECASTS.  
 

 
   
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...DZIEWALTOWSKI  
AVIATION...HENSLEY  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WY Page Main Text Page