049
FXUS65 KRIW 151149
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
549 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
- TURNING COLDER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MODERATE SNOW
EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2025
THE QUESTION OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO BE WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW SWIRLING OVER CALIFORNIA AND WILL MOVE
TOWARD AND OVER THE COWBOY STATE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AND
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK
THAT WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (TRY
SAYING THOSE THREE WORDS FAST FIVE TIMES, A BIT OF A TONGUE
TWISTER). WELL, LET US DIVE IN.
WE CURRENTLY HAVE A FEW AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOTED,
BUT NOTHING STRONG AND THESE ARE MAINLY IN IDAHO. TODAY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE INVERSE OF YESTERDAY, WHEN WE HAD MORE SHOWER COVERAGE IN
THE MORNING AND THEN DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE
AREA. AND THIS IS WHERE WE STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. SOME GUIDANCE, LIKE EUROPEAN MODEL, SHOW THE LOW
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH WOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OTHERS, LIKE THE
GFS, BRING THE LOW AROUND 75 MILES FURTHER NORTH, AND THIS COULD
BRING A DRY SLOT INTO CENTRAL WYOMING, KEEPING THINGS LARGELY DRY.
FOR NOW, WE KEPT SOME POPS IN THE AREA BUT CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 OUT OF 3 IN ANY GIVEN AREA BEFORE BETTER CHANCES MOVE IN
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MAKES A CLOSER APPROACH. THE MOST
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING THOUGH. AND, THERE
COULD EVEN BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE IS RATHER LIMITED,
ONLY AROUND 300 J/KG AT THE MOST. HOWEVER, LIFTED INDICES DROP TO
AROUND MINUS 3 IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND
NATRONA COUNTY. THERE WILL BE DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
SOME DIRECTION SHEAR AS WELL. NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS EXPECTED BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE FEISTY STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER AGREES AND HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR NATRONA COUNTY.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS SNOW. FEW PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY, AS SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 8500 FEET
AND EVEN ABOVE THIS STILL WARM GROUND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MELT SNOW ON ROADS. A COLD FRONT WILL PRESS ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND DROP SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 7000 TO 7500 FEET BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 6500 FEET IN SOME AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AS 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES MAY FALL AS LOW AS MINUS 4 TO
MINUS 5. AS FOR THE ADVISORIES, THEY STILL LOOK REASONABLY SO FEW
CHANGES WILL BE MADE THIS MORNING. THE AREAS WITH AT LEAST A 1 OUT
OF 2 CHANCE OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE ARE COVERED BY THE
ADVISORIES FOR THE MOST PART. I DO HAVE A SMALL CONCERN THAT SOME
PORTIONS OF THE BIGHORN RANGE MAY RECEIVE 6 INCHES OR MORE BUT THESE
WOULD BE THE HIGHER PEAKS AND THEREFORE IMPACTS WOULD BE LIMITED.
THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO FALL IN THE 18 HOUR
PERIOD FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS
LATER THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS FOR
TOTAL PRECIPITATION, MOST AREAS NORTH OF A KEMMERER TO CASPER LINE
HAVE AT LEAST A 1 OUT OF 2 CHANCE OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR GREATER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING, WITH A LEAST A 1 OUT OF 2 CHANCE OF GREATER
THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
MOST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FRIDAY AS A DRY DAY WITH RIDGING OVER
THE AREA. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE
IN REGARDS TO SHOWER CHANCES THOUGH. FOR NOW, WE LEANED TOWARD
THE DRIER END SINCE THE FRONT IS OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN AND
DOESN'T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER THEN RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2025
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SWEEPS OVER THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING, AS WELL AS SEVERAL TERMINALS WITH LOW
CEILINGS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY SUBSIDES AND VFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, LIKELY RETURNING MVFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES TO TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON; PROB30 GROUPS ARE IN
PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE LOW WILL APPROACH WYOMING AND
EVENTUALLY PASS OVER WYOMING LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA, GENERALLY BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST TERMINAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON SMOKE, ICING, AND TURBULENCE
FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR WYZ002-012-014-015-024.
DISCUSSION...HATTINGS
AVIATION...MYERS
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