960
FXUS65 KRIW 170957
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
357 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH SUNSET.
- SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN WYOMING THIS EVENING AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES. WIDESPREAD GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025
WITH THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM NOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST, FRIDAY WILL
BE DRY AND MILD AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONABLE NORMS. HOWEVER,
IT WON'T BE A CALM DAY FOR MOST AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS
MORNING DUE TO A BUILDING SURFACE PRESSURE AND THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS AND IN
THE UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN AS A DOWNSLOPING FLOW IS ESTABLISHED OUT
OF THE ABSAROKAS AND WINDS. GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
HERE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GENERALLY LESSER MAGNITUDES ELSEWHERE.
THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WON'T LAST LONG AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL 120 KNOT JET WILL BRING A
QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE, QPF
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS, FOCUSED MOSTLY IN THE BIGHORN BASIN AND JOHNSON AND
NATRONA COUNTIES. THE ABSAROKAS AND BIGHORNS SHOULD PICK UP A
QUICK FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMAL TRAVEL IMPACTS
EXPECTED. THIS TROUGH WILL ALREADY BE ON ITS WAY OUT BY MID-
SATURDAY MORNING, AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY GIVE
WAY TO WIDESPREAD SUNNY SKIES AROUND NOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND IT.
RIDGING BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT, KEEPING DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS NOW LOOKING
MORE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT'S SYSTEM, WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE AS AN OPEN TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS ONE SHOULD
DROP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER, WITH PRECIPITATION ALSO
EXTENDING TO WESTERN WYOMING. AMOUNTS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SIMILAR AS
WELL, WITH THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN PICKING UP SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH IN SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS WARRANTS WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS,
BUT CURRENTLY GUIDANCE KEEPS GUSTS BELOW CRITERIA.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. FURTHER OUT, ENSEMBLE
CLUSTER ANALYSIS CURRENTLY FAVORS ABOVE AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, KEEPING MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 958 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
SKIES CLEAR AND WIND IS LIGHT. KJAC AND KWRL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM ABOUT 10-14Z FRIDAY MORNING. FOR
NOW HAVE KEPT THE TEMPO GROUPS AT THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS.
FOR KWRL THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. OTHER TERMINALS THAT HAVE A CHANCE (15%) ARE KRIW
AND KLND DUE TO SKIES ALREADY CLEARING AND LIGHT WIND. NOT A
HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE (15%) FOR ANY MENTIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. MVFR CIGS AT KRKS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT TONIGHT AS THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KCOD FOR -SHRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS
STARTING AT 05Z SAT AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH IN
FROM THE NORTH BY THAT TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED.
WIND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT KCPR AND KRKS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
KCPR WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE WIND INCREASE, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. MOST TERMINALS WILL HAVE A GUSTY WIND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AT KCOD
AND KWRL LATE FRIDAY EVENING, BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MYERS
AVIATION...ROWE
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