333
FXUS65 KRIW 120428
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
928 PM MST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DAILY RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLY IN
JEOPARDY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLY RETURNING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN WY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY DEVELOP FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2025
A PLEASANT VETERANS DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE COWBOY STATE TODAY.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN REGARDS TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. WARM
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COWBOY STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE WARM WITH
MANY LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO 60S THROUGH
FRIDAY. THESE VALUES ARE NEARLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AS A RESULT SOME RECORD HIGHS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY, ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. THERE
STILL REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IN
TERMS OF IMPACTS AND TIMING REMAINS LOW. OVERALL, A GRADUAL
TRANSITION INTO MORE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2025
WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH AMPLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING
OVER IT ACROSS THE CWA AS DEPICTED ON IR. PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER
OVER THE RIDGE FROM THE PACIFIC MOISTURE AROUND IT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN FINGER OF THE
PFJ RETREATING SOME TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. AS SUCH, ANY
SUBTLE WAVES DOWN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE UPTICK SEEING 5 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY.
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN OUT OF THE WEST COME WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A DEEP GOA LOW PUSHES SOUTH OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL PUSH IN THE PACIFIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM COME FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST
FLOW LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE L/W TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE
WEST WITH INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE AS SUCH WITH WESTERN MOUNTAIN SNOW AND SOME POSSIBLE
VALLEY RAIN, ALL DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES AND TIMING OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN AFFECT ON THE
SYSTEM, AS HREF MODELS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF LOW CONFIDENCE
AND CONSISTENCY WITH IT. AS SUCH, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE UP AND
DOWN WITH EACH MODEL RUN MAKING THE NBM NOT HAVE CONSISTENT
OUTPUTS. REGARDLESS, THIS HAS TRENDED TO A WEST OF THE DIVIDE
SYSTEM NOT SEEING MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO THE EAST OUTSIDE OF
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND SOME WINDIER CONDITIONS. EASTERN
SWEETWATER TO CASPER, WITH SOME SNOW FOR CASPER MOUNTAIN
POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND STRONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DEEPENS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED FORECASTS
IN THE COMING DAYS.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST, EXPECT A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN TO BE HAD GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. TROUGH-RIDGE
COUPLETS ARE DEPICTED IN MANY OF THE LONGER TERM MODELS WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE WITH A WETTER PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK STARTING THE SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 927 PM MST TUE NOV 11 2025
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM FL100-FL200, BUT MAY DROP AS LOW AS
FL080 WEDNESDAY EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
CLOUDS, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR KJAC
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WIND WILL BE LIGHT (< 8 KNOTS) FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE KCPR AND KCOD WHERE WIND WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
WILL SUBSIDE BY 23Z, WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND AT KRIW TO START THE PERIOD, BUT THAT SHOULD END
SHORTLY.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...DZIEWALTOWSKI
DISCUSSION...LOWE
AVIATION...ROWE
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