180
FXUS65 KRIW 051114
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
414 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WEST WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BEGINS
AFTER 2-3PM ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING, INCLUDING JACKSON AND
STAR VALLEYS, AND THE WESTERN BIGHORNS. TRAVEL COULD BECOME
HAZARDOUS.
- WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH (60-80% CHANCE) AFTER SUNSET
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS, WITH WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS SEEING GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH.
- MILD, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE
(80%), ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING SUNDAY THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
WYOMING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, EVIDENT ON 10Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE DRIVERS OF THE
MEANINGFUL SNOW ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AND THE WIDESPREAD GUSTY
WINDS. THE SNOW WILL BE FIRST UP FOR DISCUSSION. MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
SWEETWATER COUNTY THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS A VORTICITY MAXIMA
EXITS THE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (90%+) IN SNOW
LIGHTENING IN INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING BETWEEN 8AM AND 2PM
LOCAL TODAY. THIS "BREAK" IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS A RESULT
OF A SHORTWAVE ALOFT BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR DUE TO ITS
ORIGIN OVER WESTERN CANADA. SNOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL DUE
TO WYOMING BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. SNOW AMOUNTS DURING THIS LIGHTER SNOWFALL
PERIOD WILL BE LIMITED. THERE IS A 40% TO 60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1
INCH ACROSS JACKSON AND STAR VALLEYS AND MUCH OF YELLOWSTONE DURING
THIS 6 HOUR PERIOD. AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ARE
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 3 AND 8 INCHES, WITH UP TO 12 INCHES ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (80-90%) IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON (2-3PM LOCAL) ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AND
THE WEST BIGHORNS. THIS UPTICK IN SNOW INTENSITY OCCURS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND ANOTHER, MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THE GREATEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 2-3PM TODAY AND SUNRISE SATURDAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE TETON AND GROS
VENTRE MOUNTAINS AND THE SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES RANGE FROM 10
TO 15 INCHES, WITH 2 FEET OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS YELLOWSTONE, THE ABSAROKAS, THE WESTERN BIGHORNS, AND
WEST WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 15
INCHES DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
ABSAROKAS AND THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY (80%) SEE AMOUNTS
CLOSER TO THAT 15 INCH MARK. AS FOR JACKSON AND STAR VALLEYS AND THE
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM 2-3PM TODAY THROUGH
SUNRISE SATURDAY ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES. DESPITE THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED, THESE LOWER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LARGELY DUE TO TEMPERATURES BEING NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING (60-90% CHANCE).
SNOWFALL WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY SATURDAY MORNING AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AND SUPPORT ALOFT WEAKENS. NONETHELESS,
SNOW WILL STILL BE FALLING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A FEW TENTHS
ON AN INCH TO 2 INCHES FOR THE WESTERN VALLEYS, UPPER GREEN RIVER
BASIN, AND MOST OF YELLOWSTONE. THE ABSAROKAS, WEST WIND RIVER
MOUNTAINS, AND THE WEST BIGHORNS WILL SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW (20%
CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 5 INCHES). THE TETONS AND GROS VENTRE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES WILL LIKELY (80%)
SEE ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THIS PUTS THE THREE-DAY SNOW TOTALS FOR THESE LOCATIONS
BETWEEN 12 AND 20 INCHES WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING 2 TO 3 FEET.
NOW TO THE WIND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY WILL FAVOR GUSTY 20 TO 30 WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING
AND THE ABSAROKAS. HOWEVER, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL JET
WITH SPEEDS OF 120 TO 135KTS MOVES OVER WYOMING AFTER SUNSET TODAY,
GUSTY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS MUCH THE AREA. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT 700MB WINDS OF 50 KTS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS,
SWEETWATER COUNTY, THE WIND RIVER BASIN, THE EASTERN BIGHORN BASIN,
AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY AFTER 10PM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. 700MB WIND SPEEDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD NORMALLY
TRANSLATE TO WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH (HIGH WIND CRITERIA). HOWEVER,
THERE IS CURRENTLY A 50/50 SHOT OF THIS OCCURRING IN THESE
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY SWEETWATER COUNTY. THE UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO
WYOMING BEING IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL JET (UPWARD MOTION AS OPPOSED TO DOWNWARD MOTION) AND A
DIURNAL INVERSION LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF WIND MAKING IT TO THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE WINDY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A
60% TO 80% CHANCE OF GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. THE GREATEST AREA
OF CONCERN FOR GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH IS SWEETWATER COUNTY, WHERE THERE
IS ONLY A 30% CHANCE OF 60 MPH GUSTS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, NO WIND
HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY,
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET, ALTHOUGH WEAKER (AROUND 100 KTS), WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS WITH ASSOCIATED 700MB WINDS AROUND
30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF SOUTHERN WYOMING GUSTY ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE THAT DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER WYOMING SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERALL HEIGHT RISES.
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES (40-50%) CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
WYOMING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THERE IS ALSO AGREEMENT THAT
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (80%) FOR THE WEST. HOWEVER, THIS FRONT WILL
NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING LIKELY (80 TO 90%) FOR MID DECEMBER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS TERMINALS.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z AT KJAC, WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. 20 TO 40% CHANCES CONTINUE TO EXIST THAT KBPI AND
KPNA WILL ALSO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 15Z, WITH KPNA
BEING THE MORE LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE THOSE SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED IF THOSE SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR. A WAVE
WILL ALSO BRING SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KRKS THROUGH 15Z AS WELL.
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. MOST MODELS
ARE INDICATING A LULL IN SNOWFALL BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z, WHICH
COULD BRING KJAC UP TO VFR, HOWEVER, GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW AND
OROGRAPHICS, EXPECT KJAC TO REMAIN MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE LULL. A MUCH HEAVIER PERIOD OF SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED
BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AT KJAC WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS A RESULT. THIS MORE POTENT PUSH OF SNOW LOOKS TO
IMPACT KBPI AND KPNA (70% CHANCE) AS WELL AS KRKS (50% CHANCE)
LATE IN THE PERIOD. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE SNOW, WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30KT AFTER 06Z.
THIS COULD LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT KRKS, WHERE GUSTS
AROUND 40KT WILL OCCUR.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL TERMINALS.
WITH THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM, WIND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
EAST OF THE DIVIDE, WITH MOST TERMINALS SEEING WINDS STAYING
LIGHT (10KT OR LESS) THROUGH THE DAY. BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KCPR WHICH WILL HAVE SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 14KT. MIDLEVEL CIGS ALSO WILL BE EXPECTED
IN THE MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OUT OF THOSE LOWER CIGS, WITH MOST
LIKELY CHANCES AT KWRL (30% CHANCE) BUT KCPR (20% CHANCE) AND
KCOD (10% CHANCE) MAY ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. THE MID-
LEVEL CIGS SHOULD FILTER OUT BY MIDDAY, WITH BKN-OVC FL050-100
CLOUDS IN PLACE AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
00Z AT KCOD AND AFTER 05Z ELSEWHERE. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KT WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KWRL.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON SMOKE, ICING, AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST SATURDAY FOR WYZ001-002-
008-013-014-023-025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST SATURDAY FOR WYZ012-024.
DISCUSSION...GERHARDT
AVIATION...LAVOIE/HENSLEY
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