798
FXUS65 KRIW 161120
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
420 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS (UP TO 65 MPH) OCCURRING OVER JOHNSON COUNTY.
GUSTS ELSEWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 25 MPH TO 40
MPH.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE
AREA. EAST OF THE DIVIDE, THIS IS 20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES.
- A RETURN OF MILD TEMPERATURES RETURNS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
09Z SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WYOMING SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND AN UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. THIS SET UP IS
RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH A 100KT TO 130KT
UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE COWBOY STATE. AN ASSOCIATED NORTHWESTERLY
ORIENTED 50KT-60KT 700 MB WIND MAXIMUM IS ALSO PRESENT OVER JOHNSON
COUNTY. THIS SET UP WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WHICH
MEANS A WINDY DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS JOHNSON COUNTY, WITH WIDESPREAD
COOLER TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE.
THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE (90%+) THAT HIGH WINDS WILL OCCUR MOST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS JOHNSON COUNTY, GIVEN LITTLE TO NO
SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 700MB WIND MAXIMUMS AND UPPER LEVEL
JET. HIGH WINDS ARE SUSTAINED GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF AT LEAST
58 MPH. PROBABILITIES OF THESE GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATION ARE 80% TO 95% THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS,
THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSON COUNTY,
ESPECIALLY NEAR BUFFALO, THROUGH 5PM THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS, HOWEVER, THERE IS
HIGHER CRITERIA FOR HIGH WIND HEADLINES FOR THE MOUNTAIN. A FEW HOUR
EXTENSION PAST 5PM WAS CONSIDERED GIVEN THE OVERALL SET UP REMAINS
MOSTLY IN PLACE. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT 700MB WINDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE. WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING GIVEN
PROBABILITIES OF THESE WINDS OCCURRING PAST 5PM DROP TO LESS THAN
20%. REGARDLESS WINDS ACROSS JOHNSON COUNTY, AND ESPECIALLY NEAR
BUFFALO, WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH A 50% TO 60% CHANCE OF GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH OCCURRING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL JET STAYS OVER THE STATE TODAY, WINDY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS NATRONA COUNTY, EASTERN
FREMONT COUNTY, THE BIGHORN BASIN, AND HIGH ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WIND GUSTS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL GENERALLY
BETWEEN 30 MPH AND 40 MPH, WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST OF 50 MPH NOT OUT
OF QUESTION THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. MEAN 700MB WINDS OVER THESE
LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE 30KT TO 40KT, WHICH IS THE REASON THAT
THESE AREAS ARE BEING SPARED FROM THE GUSTS THAT ARE OVER JOHNSON
COUNTY. HOWEVER, THIS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND IF ANY ADDITIONS NEED TO BE MADE TO THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA, BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE (30%-70% CHANCE). WINDS REMAIN WINDY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY BEFORE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE OVERALL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WANES.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE
WINDS, IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF WYOMING. MEAN 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE -9C ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS AND AROUND -20C
ACROSS JOHNSON COUNTY. WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED AND COOL 700MB
TEMPERATURES, NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH TODAYS HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 20S. THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE THE GREEN RIVER, WIND RIVER, AND BIGHORN BASINS AS
WELL AS ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY, WHERE HIGHS WILL LIKELY (90%
CHANCE) BE IN THE 30S. FINALLY, THERE IS A UP TO A 30% CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIGHORN MOUNTAINS, NORTH OF BUFFALO,
AND ON CASPER MOUNTAIN TODAY GIVEN FAVORABLE UPSLOPING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOST LIKELY BE LESS THAN 0.5 INCH (80% CHANCE).
THE ONLY IMPACTS THAT COULD OCCUR WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT LARGELY
UNSATURATED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FROM SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY,
WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO TREK ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE WITH THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
BE LIMITED GIVEN THE OVERALL CANADIAN ORIGIN SO THERE ARE VERY LOW,
IF ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL, THE DRY AND MILD JANUARY THAT
WE HAVE BEEN HAVING CONTINUES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 415 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO VARY THIS MORNING, BUT HAS BEEN STAYING
4000 TO 5000 FEET FOR KCPR/KRIW/KLND. RIW/LND WILL SEE
IMPROVEMENTS LATER THIS MORNING, BUT KCPR WILL CONTINUE WITH
MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECKS AS COLD AIR WRAPS CONTINUES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE AT KCOD/KWRL THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY EAST OF THE DIVIDE, WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 35KTS, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KCPR, AND GUSTS
APPROACHING 50KTS AT KBYG.
WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL SEE MORE TRANQUIL AVIATION WEATHER,
WITH VFR CIGS AND VIS. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20KTS AT
KBPI/KPNA, BUT THESE WILL RELAX LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ010-011.
DISCUSSION...GERHARDT
AVIATION...STRAUB
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