443
FXUS65 KRIW 200434
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
934 PM MST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FRONT BRINGING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH
WYOMING ON TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH WILL BE
COMMON.
- LOCATIONS IN THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF WYOMING, INCLUDING
BUFFALO WY, ARE LIKELY (70% CHANCE) TO SEE A DUSTING OF LIGHT
SNOW ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
- COOLER AIR EDGES INTO THE STATE FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A QUICK
RETURN TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MST MON JAN 19 2026
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK TODAY AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
LARGELY UNCHANGED. AFTER A MILD DAY WITH CALMER WIND, THE NEXT WEAK
WAVE WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES TOMORROW MORNING. AS
NOTED BELOW, THIS ONE HAS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW (AN INCH OR TWO ON THE HIGH END),
MAINLY ACROSS THE ABSAROKAS AND BIGHORNS. LIGHT FLURRIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE (20-30%) ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN WYOMING DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY, THOUGH AGAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY LIGHT, GENERALLY UNDER HALF AN INCH. WIND WILL BE THE
MORE NOTABLE IMPACT TOMORROW, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH
IN NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
THE H5 RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE YET ANOTHER DAY, DEFLECTING LARGER
WEATHER SYSTEMS AND MOST MOISTURE WELL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
YESTERDAY'S SHORTWAVE WAS ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW NUISANCE
FLURRIES TO CENTRAL WY, BUT NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF OTHERWISE.
TODAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE WAVE DEPARTS.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL START RAMPING UPWARDS AGAIN FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND ACROSS CENTRAL WY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
WAVE. WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD AGAIN, WITH HIGHS
AROUND 40 EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY, WHILE
WESTERN VALLEYS HOLD AROUND 30 AGAIN.
THE NEXT WAVE ON TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTH
WINDS, BUT IS NOT BRINGING ANY APPRECIABLE COLD WEATHER ALONG
WITH IT, WHICH WILL HOLD BACK INTO LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE DAY WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 30S AND
40S. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING SNOW INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BIGHORNS, BUT WRINGING OUT MORE THAN 1 TO 2
INCHES WILL BE TOUGH. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY DRIFT INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE, BUT WITH MILD TEMPS, EXPECT
ONLY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AT BEST. NORTH WINDS WITH THIS WAVE
WILL JUMP AGAIN EAST OF THE DIVIDE, WITH GUSTS 30 TO 30 FOR THE
BIGHORN AND WIND RIVER BASINS, AND ANOTHER 50 TO 60 MPH EVENT
ACROSS JOHNSON COUNTY. A TRAILING WAVE SWEEPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS TOO FAR EAST TO PROVIDE ANY
PRECIP, BUT WILL REINFORCE THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS JOHNSON COUNTY.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD DAY AGAIN, AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALONG THE ROCKIES FOR THE DAY. FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON
COLD AIR AND PRECIP WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE COLD POOL RACING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL US, BUT
HOW MUCH OF THE COLD AIR GETS INTO WYOMING IS THE DIFFICULT PART
OF THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THESE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 927 PM MST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER
FOR MOST AVIATION INTERESTS BEING STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WHICH DEVELOP TUESDAY MID-DAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THOSE IN FAR WESTERN WYOMING VALLEYS WILL BE SPARED
THE STRONGER WINDS.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH OF WYOMING. FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA (WHICH HAS JOHNSON COUNTY AS ITS NORTHEASTERN
EXTREME), KBYG (BUFFALO, WY) LOOKS TO BE THE LOCATION WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT OF SNOW AS THE FRONT
PASSES, CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR 20/1800Z THROUGH 20/2200Z.
ADDITIONALLY, IN THIS PATTERN, KBYG OFTEN GUSTS HIGHER THAN
SURROUNDING SITES, SO THERE IS A 70% CHANCE OF GUSTS IN THE 40
TO 50 KT RANGE DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON FOR THE POWDER RIVER
BASIN IN NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING.
WINDS DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET, BUT WILL REMAIN A
BIT ELEVATED COMPARED TO NORMAL DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MYERS
DISCUSSION...STRAUB
AVIATION...VANDENBOOGART
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